California 2050: Cities At Greater Risk From Floods Than Fires

The Rising Threat of Floods in California: A Growing Concern for Major Cities

A recent study published by CoreLogic, a leading provider of financial, property, and consumer analytics, has revealed a startling projection: by 2050, some of California’s largest cities may face a greater risk from floods than from wildfires. This finding comes on the heels of devastating wildfires that have ravaged the state, destroying thousands of homes and structures. While wildfires have long been a defining threat to California, the study suggests that climate change and shifting environmental conditions are altering the landscape of natural hazards in the region.

Why It Matters: California’s History of Wildfires and Emerging Flood Risks

California has long been synonymous with wildfires, which have left an indelasurable mark on the state’s landscape and communities. In recent years, fires have burned millions of acres, displaced residents, and caused billions of dollars in damage. However, the study highlights a new and emerging threat: flooding. Following the recent wildfires, the National Weather Service issued flood watches for areas impacted by the blazes, underscoring the interconnectedness of these natural disasters. Burned areas, devoid of vegetation that would otherwise absorb water, are particularly vulnerable to flooding. This interdependency between fires and floods is a critical factor in understanding the growing risk of flooding in California.

What to Know: Projected Flood Risks in Major California Cities

The CoreLogic report paints a stark picture of the future of flood risks in California. By 2050, more than one million homes in Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco—currently considered at low risk for flooding—will face a greater threat from floods than from wildfires. The study provides specific data for each city:

• In Los Angeles, 762,000 homes are currently at risk of flooding, while the city’s wildfire risk score is 46, indicating moderate risk. By 2050, Los Angeles’ flood risk score is expected to surge to 58, classified as "high" risk, surpassing the projected wildfire risk score of 51.
• San Diego currently has 231,000 homes at risk of flooding, with a wildfire risk score of 43 and a flood risk score of 9. By 2050, San Diego’s flood risk score is projected to rise to 53, while its wildfire risk score will increase only slightly to 48.
• San Francisco, with 65,000 homes currently at flood risk, will see its flood risk score jump from 8 to 53 by 2050, while its wildfire risk score will rise from 42 to 46.

The report emphasizes that even without assuming worst-case climate scenarios, homes currently at very low flood risk will see their risk increase by 40 points or more by 2050.

What People Are Saying: Expert Insights and Interconnected Risks

Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, notes that wildfire risk currently exceeds flood risk by more than four times in California’s three largest metro areas. However, she warns that this dynamic is set to change dramatically. "By 2050, flood risk is expected to exceed fire risk in these areas," she says, "as flood risk is worsened by the destruction from wildfires."

The report also explains the interdependency of natural hazards, such as the role of wet winters in fueling vegetation growth that can later ignite during fire seasons. Once these areas burn, the lack of vegetation leaves them more vulnerable to flooding. This cyclical relationship between fires and floods highlights the complex challenges California will face in the coming decades.

What Happens Next: The Future of Flood and Fire Risks in California

The CoreLogic report warns that flood risk scores for single-family homes in Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco will worsen significantly between 2030 and 2050. Homes that currently face moderate wildfire risk will see both their flood and fire risks increase, creating a dual threat that will require urgent attention from policymakers, homeowners, and insurers.

As the state prepares for this uncertain future, the report underscores the need for proactive measures to mitigate these risks. From improving floodwater management systems to implementing stricter building codes, the steps taken today will determine how well California adapts to the challenges of tomorrow.

Conclusion: A Call to Action for California’s Future

The CoreLogic study serves as a wake-up call for California, highlighting the pressing need to address the growing threat of floods alongside the ongoing risk of wildfires. While the state has made strides in wildfire prevention and response, the rising threat of flooding demands equal attention and innovation. By understanding the interconnected risks of natural hazards and taking proactive steps to prepare, California can reduce the impact of these disasters and build a more resilient future for its residents.