What Does Europe Need To Do To Bolster Its Security?

The Warning Signs of "2054" and the Real-World Reality

In recent weeks, I delved into 2054, the latest collaboration between Admiral Jim Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman. Like its predecessor, 2034, this book is a gripping work of fiction that doubles as a cautionary tale about the future of geopolitics. It vividly illustrates how new technologies could be weaponized to reshape the global power balance. Yet, as compelling as their work is, I couldn’t shake the feeling that both 2034 and 2054 have already been overtaken by the rapid and unpredictable events of our real world. The challenges we face today are not the ones predicted in these novels—they are more immediate, more chaotic, and far more unsettling.

The Trump administration’s actions have been a prime example of this upheaval. Its policies and rhetoric have detonated over 70 years of carefully crafted American diplomacy and soft power, creating what can only be described as a fin de siècle moment—a moment historians will look back on as the end of an era. The consequences of this shift are profound. As Singapore’s defense minister aptly put it, the U.S. has transitioned from being a global force for “moral legitimacy” to something far less noble: a landlord demanding rent. This change has sent shockwaves through the diplomatic world, leaving allies confused and adversaries emboldened.

Europe’s Wake-Up Call: The Need for a Coherent Security Strategy

The fallout from this shift is particularly evident in Europe. The continent is grappling with the challenges of a post-globalized world, but few countries have shown the political will to confront these challenges head-on. Mario Draghi’s recent speech to the EU Parliament summed it up perfectly: “Do something!” Yet, as Europe scrambles to respond, its efforts often feel scattered and lacking in direction. The current frenzy over defense spending—including proposals for 500 billion Euros in defense bonds, joint nuclear shields, and lengthy shopping lists of military equipment—obscures a more urgent task: the need for a cohesive security strategy.

The recent collapse of government formation talks in Austria between the centrist OVP and the far-right FPO is a stark reminder of the divisions within Europe. While the parties agreed on economic policies, they couldn’t reconcile their differences on foreign policy, particularly when it came to oversight of the intelligence services. This is no minor issue, especially given the FPO’s well-documented ties to the Kremlin. The fallout from this failure is already evident: few EU member states are willing to share intelligence with Austria, a glaring weak link in the continental security framework.

Russia’s Shadow: Infiltration, Sabotage, and Manipulation

The immediate challenge facing Europe is not just about defense—it’s about security. Russia’s playbook for infiltration, sabotage, and manipulation is well-documented, from the Gerasimov doctrine to the insights of experts like David Kilcullen. Yet, the EU has done remarkably little to counter these efforts. The result is a continent increasingly vulnerable to Russian interference. Whether it’s through cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, or old-fashioned espionage, Moscow is exploiting Europe’s divisions and complacency.

The problem is not just about external threats; it’s also about internal weaknesses. Wealthy Russians have poured billions into European capitals, buying influence and access. Cities like Vienna, Milan, and the French Riviera are favorites for Russian oligarchs, and their money has seeped into politics, real estate, and even cultural institutions. As Mark Hollingsworth’s Londongrad and Oliver Bullough’s Butler to the World reveal, this is not just a matter of personal enrichment—it’s a strategic effort to undermine Western resilience. The lack of a strong response to Russian interference in U.K. and Irish politics is a troubling sign of what may be happening elsewhere, particularly in Germany.

A Call to Action: Strengthening Europe’s Defenses

Faced with these challenges, Europe’s political class must take immediate action. While buying fighter jets and upgrading military hardware is important, it is not enough. The real work lies in shoring up Europe’s security infrastructure—everything from intelligence sharing to countering organized crime. This requires a level of cooperation and coordination that has been lacking in recent years. Joint task forces, shared use of satellites, and collaboration on electronic warfare are just a few examples of what needs to be done. The distinction between security and defense is not just semantic—it’s a call to action.

At the same time, Europe must hold its own members accountable. Hungary, under Viktor Orban’s leadership, has repeatedly acted against the values and interests of the EU. While some steps have been taken to withhold funding, stronger measures are needed. Excluding Hungary from the EU may be a drastic step, but it is a necessary one if the Union is to maintain any semblance of ideological coherence. The same applies to other member states that prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability. Europe cannot afford to tolerate bad actors any longer.

Conclusion: The Urgent Need for European Unity

The challenges facing Europe are monumental, but they are not insurmountable. What’s needed is a combination of political will, strategic thinking, and a willingness to act decisively. The lessons of the past few years are clear: the old certainties are gone, and the new world is far more dangerous than anyone could have imagined. The fictional scenarios in 2054 are unsettling, but the real-world problems we face today are even more alarming. Europe has a choice to make: it can continue down the path of complacency and division, or it can come together to build a future that is secure, united, and resilient. The time to act is now.