Sir Keir Starmer’s High-Stakes Visit to Washington: A Mission to Mend the Western Alliance

Sir Keir Starmer’s upcoming trip to Washington DC may prove to be the defining moment of his tenure as Prime Minister. At a time when the Western alliance is showing signs of fracture, Starmer’s mission is to repair the cracks caused by former President Donald Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric toward Ukraine and his troubling embrace of Russia. The Prime Minister faces an uphill battle as he seeks to convince Trump to reconsider his stance on Ukraine and realign with the European perspective. The stakes are higher than ever, with the future of the Western alliance hanging in the balance.

The challenges Starmer faces are stark. Over the past week, Trump has upended the post-war understanding that America is the reliable protector of the Western world. While his calls for European nations to increase their defense spending align with long-standing demands, his overt hostility toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his apparent acceptance of Russian propaganda have left Europe stunned. Starmer’s task is not only to advocate for Ukraine but also to persuade Trump to back a peace deal that includes European participation and is secured by American military might. The question on everyone’s mind is whether Starmer can succeed where others, like former Prime Minister Theresa May, have failed.

Starmer’s approach to this critical mission is measured and strategic. Despite Trump’s recent criticism of both Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, accusing them of doing "nothing" to end the war in Ukraine, Downing Street has maintained a dignified silence. The last thing Starmer wants is to provoke Trump further ahead of the visit. Instead, he has focused on reinforcing the UK’s unwavering support for Ukraine, making three phone calls to Zelenskyy in just over a week. The UK is also expected to announce an expansion of military aid to Ukraine and a new round of sanctions against Russia, directly countering Trump’s push for a quick end to the conflict.

To smooth the path for his Washington visit, Starmer is arriving with diplomatic gifts. He is reportedly set to announce an accelerated timeline for increasing UK defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP, a move that aligns with Trump’s repeated calls for NATO members to bolster their military budgets. Additionally, Starmer will present Trump with an invitation from King Charles III for a state visit to the UK, a tactic previously employed by Theresa May during her 2017 visit. These gestures are designed to mollify Trump and create an opening for Starmer to pitch his proposal for deploying British and European troops to Ukraine, supported by US security guarantees.

However, the agenda for Starmer’s visit extends far beyond Ukraine. Other contentious issues, such as the Chagos Islands and trade tariffs, loom large. The UK’s plan to hand the Pacific archipelago to Mauritius while continuing to lease the strategic military base has drawn objections from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the threat of tariffs on UK imports to the US, particularly on steel, aluminum, and goods subject to VAT, poses a significant economic risk. The UK hopes to negotiate exemptions based on the balanced nature of US-UK trade, but the stakes are high, with economists warning that tariffs could cost the British economy up to £24 billion.

Ultimately, the success of Starmer’s visit will depend on his ability to navigate the unpredictable terrain of Trump’s diplomacy. While personal rapport may carry some weight—Trump has recently described Starmer as a "very nice guy"—it will not be enough to resolve the deep divisions on key issues. Starmer’s disciplined, measured approach will be tested as he confronts not only Trump’s mercurial nature but also the broader shifts in the global order. As the Prime Minister seeks to shore up the Western alliance, he must balance the need for diplomacy with the imperative of standing firm on core principles. The world will be watching as he takes on this mission, one that could define his legacy and shape the future of international relations.