Exclusive | Socialist lawmakers neck-and-neck in NYC race for mayor — but still lag behind Cuomo in latest poll

The Race for Gracie Mansion Heats Up: A Closer Look at the New York Mayoral Poll

The race for Gracie Mansion is rapidly intensifying, with a recent poll revealing a tightly contested battle among Democratic candidates vying to become New York City’s next mayor. According to the survey conducted by Gotham Polling and Analytics, two progressive lawmakers—City Comptroller Brad Lander and state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani—are neck-and-neck in the race, though they still trail behind former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is widely expected to announce his candidacy soon. The poll, which surveyed over 1,500 likely Democratic primary voters between February 20 and 25, paints a dynamic picture of a race that is far from decided.

The Progressive Divide: Lander and Mamdani Split the Vote

In the seventh and final round of ranked-choice voting, Lander leads with 31% of the vote, while Mamdani follows closely with 18%. This marks the highest level of support for the two progressive candidates to date, signaling a shift in voter sentiment that could have significant implications for the outcome of the race. However, despite their strong showings, both Lander and Mamdani are overshadowed by Cuomo, who secures a majority of 51% of the vote in the final round. David Schwartz of Gotham Polling noted that the race is “much closer than it looks,” suggesting that even minor shifts in voter preferences could dramatically alter the results.

Cuomo’s Dominance and the Challenges Ahead

Andrew Cuomo, the three-term Democratic governor who resigned in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations and criticism over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in nursing homes, remains the front-runner in the race. His 51% majority in the final round underscores his enduring influence among Democratic voters, despite significant opposition. The poll reveals that 42% of respondents would never vote for Cuomo, and nearly 40% believe his scandal-plagued past makes him unfit for office. These findings highlight the challenges Cuomo faces in winning over skeptical voters, even as he maintains a strong lead.

Adams’ Struggles and the Voter Sentiment

Embattled incumbent Mayor Eric Adams fares poorly in the poll, with 84% of respondents stating they would not vote for him. Nearly 60% of those surveyed described his administration as “chaotic” and expressed the view that the city has not improved during his first term. These strikingly negative sentiments suggest that Adams is fighting an uphill battle to retain his position. Meanwhile, candidates like state Sen. Jessica Ramos, who was eliminated in the fourth round with just 8% of the vote, may benefit from their relatively low name recognition, as nearly half of voters expressed no strong opinion about her.

Lander’s Strength and Mamdani’s Emerging Profile

Brad Lander emerges as one of the most viable candidates in the race, with 68% of respondents indicating they could vote for him—a higher margin than any other candidate. This bodes well for his chances as the race progresses. On the other hand, Zohran Mamdani, a charismatic but relatively unknown Queens assemblyman, has split voter opinion. While 51% of respondents said they could vote for him, 49% expressed opposition, driven in part by his higher negatives among older voters. Despite these challenges, Mamdani’s radical campaign proposals—such as free bus rides and city-run grocery stores—have helped him carve out a niche as a serious contender.

Looking Ahead: The Road to City Hall

As the race for Gracie Mansion enters its final stretch, the dynamics of the contest are poised to shift dramatically. With Cuomo’s dominance balanced against the growing influence of progressive candidates like Lander and Mamdani, the outcome remains far from certain. Voters’ willingness to embrace far-left policies and their lingering skepticism about Cuomo’s fitness for office could reshape the landscape in the coming weeks. For now, the poll serves as a reminder that this election is anything but predictable—and the road to City Hall will likely be paved with surprises.