Even if Trump secures Ukraine-Russia peace deal, can Putin be trusted?

Ukraine has agreed to a preliminary proposal from the Trump administration that calls for a 30-day ceasefire, contingent on Russia’s acceptance. This marks a significant step toward ending the brutal war that has lasted for three years. However, the key question remains: can Russian President Vladimir Putin be trusted to adhere to any potential agreement? Historically, Russia under Putin has repeatedly violated international agreements, such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership. These violations, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the 2022 invasion, raise concerns about Putin’s reliability in upholding any new treaty.

The international community, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has expressed skepticism about the likelihood of achieving a lasting peace deal with Russia in the near term. Security experts emphasize that trusting Putin is not the solution; instead, it’s crucial to create a situation where any future violations by Russia would result in significant consequences. Michael Ryan, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense, argues that Russia must be positioned as the “loser” in the war to prevent future aggression, similar to the outcome of the Cold War. This approach would require a comprehensive strategy to ensure Russia faces deterrents against violating any potential agreement.

experts like Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, warn that even if a peace deal is reached, Russia will likely continue covert operations to expand its geopolitical influence. This includes election interference, cyber warfare, and espionage. Ryan suggests that a Trump-brokered peace deal should draw lessons from history, such as the reconstruction efforts post-World War II. He advocates for economic reconciliation with Russia, similar to how Germany and Japan were rebuilt after WWII, to prevent future conflicts and to weaken Russia’s alliance with China. This approach, Ryan believes, is essential for ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine and for deterring Russia from further aggression.

The path to a negotiated settlement is fraught with challenges, including disputes over occupied territories, international recognition of annexed lands, and the return of prisoners of war and abducted children. Analysts point out that Ukraine is unlikely to withdraw from areas it controls, and the West is unlikely to recognize Russian-occupied regions. Peter Rough, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, notes that Putin is unlikely to make concessions, as he believes he is in a strong position due to Russia’s superior military capabilities and economic preparedness. This imbalance in power dynamics makes it difficult to envision a scenario where Putin would agree to a ceasefire or a peace deal that doesn’t serve his strategic interests.

Security experts like Koffler argue that Putin believes he has prepared Russia to prolong the war indefinitely, supplied by a robust defense industry that produces more weapons in three months than NATO does in a year. This belief, combined with a deep mistrust of the West, particularly President Trump, whom Putinviews as unpredictable, makes the prospect of a ceasefire unlikely. Koffler emphasizes that Putin is committed to maintaining geopolitical control over Ukraine and will not leave eastern Ukraine, which he considers a red line in the balance of power between Russia and the West.

Ultimately, the key to ensuring that Putin does not invade another country lies in strengthening NATO’s defenses, increasing defense spending, and developing a robust deterrence strategy. Experts argue that only by making NATO strong and addressing every aspect of Putin’s strategy can the West hope to prevent future aggression and create a framework for lasting peace in Ukraine. The situation remains complex, with numerous variables that could influence the outcome of any negotiations, making it challenging to hold Putin accountable or rely on his adherence to any agreement.