The two big unknowns left up in the air after Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing’ Ukraine summit

A Unified Rejection of Putin’s Ceasefire Approach

Today’s virtual meeting of global leaders sent a resounding message: they overwhelmingly rejected Vladimir Putin’s conditional and delaying tactics regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine. The "coalition of the willing," which includes 27 leaders, NATO, and the EU, is urging the Russian president to mirror Ukraine’s commitment to a 30-day unconditional pause in fighting. This pause is seen as a necessary step to create a window for negotiations and to hammer out a sustainable peace deal. Sir Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, made it clear that the international community is united behind this approach, emphasizing that the world needs swift action rather than further delays or empty promises.

Sir Keir highlighted the stark contrast between Ukraine’s readiness for peace and Putin’s reluctance. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pledged to an unconditional ceasefire, Putin continues to insist on "painstaking studies" before agreeing to any pause. Sir Keir underlined the urgency of the situation, stating, "Sooner or later, Putin will have to come to the table." The implication is clear: the global community is losing patience with Russia’s stalling tactics and is pushing for concrete progress toward a peaceful resolution.

Distrust in Putin and the Strategic Challenge

Despite the unified front, there are significant challenges underlying the coalition’s efforts. Many leaders, including Sir Keir, harbor deep doubts about Putin’s willingness to uphold any peace agreements. This distrust is a major obstacle, as it complicates efforts to negotiate a ceasefire that all parties can trust. Additionally, Sir Keir and other leaders are working to convince US President Donald Trump to adopt a more critical perspective on Russia’s intentions. By challenging Putin to follow the US request for a ceasefire and anticipating his refusal, the coalition aims to send a clear message not only to the Kremlin but also to the White House.

The strategy is twofold: first, to pressure Putin into accepting a ceasefire and second, to expose his unwillingness to do so. By doing this, the coalition hopes to galvanize international support for Ukraine and isolate Russia further on the global stage. However, despite these efforts, significant unknowns remain unresolved. For instance, the role of a potential peacekeeping force and the security guarantees required to establish it are still unclear.

The Role of the US and the Security Guarantee

One of the most pressing issues is the extent to which the US is willing to provide a security guarantee for any peacekeeping mission. Sir Keir has made it clear that such a guarantee is essential to assembling a "coalition of the willing" that might contribute troops to Ukraine. However, there is growing skepticism about whether the US will deliver on this front. Recent signals from Washington suggest that substantial support may not be forthcoming, which poses a significant problem for Sir Keir and the coalition.

The problem is compounded by the fact that the scope and remit of any peacekeeping force are directly tied to the level of protection the US might provide. Without clarity on this issue, it becomes difficult to operationalize plans for deploying troops or defining their mission. This uncertainty has left many questioning whether the coalition’s ambitious goals are realistic or achievable in the near term.

The Practical Challenges of Peacekeeping

Another critical issue that Sir Keir has yet to address is the practical role of any peacekeeping force in Ukraine. NATO troops, including those from the UK, are constrained by the risk of direct confrontation with Russia, which could escalate the conflict into a broader and more catastrophic war. This raises the question: what exactly would be the purpose of a peacekeeping mission if it cannot engage directly with Russian forces?

Experts, including former national security adviser Lord Ricketts, have repeatedly asked for clarity on this issue. However, Sir Keir has not provided a definitive answer, suggesting that the details are still far from being resolved. While military chiefs are meeting to "operationalize" plans, the lack of a clear remit for the coalition of the willing raises serious doubts about the effectiveness of any peacekeeping effort.

The Path Forward and the Need for Clarity

Despite these challenges, Sir Keir has sought to bolster the coalition by highlighting the participation of countries like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand in today’s call. Their involvement adds weight to the international effort and demonstrates a shared commitment to ending the war. However, without a clear and actionable plan, the coalition risks being seen as more symbolic than substantive.

The path forward requires addressing the twin challenges of distrust in Putin and the practical limitations of peacekeeping. It also demands greater clarity on the role of the US and the security guarantees it is willing to provide. Until these issues are resolved, the coalition’s efforts to achieve a sustainable peace deal will remain in limbo. The global community is watching closely, eager for progress but bracing for the possibility of further delays and disappointments. For now, the focus remains on pressuring Putin to accept a ceasefire and hoping that the coalition’s unity and determination can lead to meaningful results.