Jair Bolsonaro’s Political Comeback Bid: A Rally, a Controversy, and a Familiar Strategy

A Show of Strength on Copacabana Beach

Thousands of supporters of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro gathered on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, March 17, 2024, to demonstrate their unwavering support for the controversial right-wing leader. Bolsonaro, who served as Brazil’s president from 2019 to 2022, has been barred from seeking public office until 2030 due to his unsubstantiated claims of fraud in the country’s electronic voting system. Despite this, he is determined to make a political comeback, drawing inspiration from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy to regain power.

The rally, which Bolsonaro had hoped would attract a million attendees, was a clear show of strength ahead of Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections. The event was not just a demonstration of loyalty but also a call to action. Bolsonaro’s supporters, many of whom were clad in the colors of the Brazilian flag, chanted slogans and waved banners, signaling their readiness to back him in his quest to return to office. The former president himself addressed the crowd, asserting his determination to challenge the ban on his candidacy and vowing to fight for what he termed "democracy" in Brazil.

The Context of the January 8 Riots

The rally also served as a platform for Bolsonaro to address the aftermath of the January 8, 2023, riots in Brasília, the capital of Brazil. On that day, thousands of his supporters stormed key government buildings, including the presidential palace, Congress, and the Supreme Court, in a violent attempt to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election, which Bolsonaro lost to his leftist rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The riots drew comparisons to the January 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters, who similarly sought to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

The January 8 riots in Brazil were marked by widespread destruction and violence, prompting a strong response from the government. Prosecutors have since alleged that the riots were part of a broader criminal plot orchestrated by Bolsonaro himself to overthrow Lula and return to power. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face a prison sentence of more than 40 years. The Supreme Court is set to decide on March 25, 2024, whether there is sufficient evidence to bring him to trial.

Bolsonaro’s Trump-Inspired Strategy

Bolsonaro’s political strategy bears striking similarities to that of Donald Trump, who has also faced legal and political challenges in his bid to return to the White House. Like Trump, Bolsonaro has positioned himself as a victim of political persecution, claiming that the legal system and the political establishment are conspiring against him to prevent him from seeking office. This narrative has resonated with his base, many of whom view him as a champion of conservative values and a defender against what they see as a left-wing assault on democracy.

During the rally, a banner depicting Trump with his fist raised was prominently displayed on stage, symbolizing the ideological affinity between the two leaders. Bolsonaro’s supporters have drawn parallels between his situation and Trump’s, viewing both as populist leaders who have been unfairly Targeted by the political elite. This sense of shared grievance has further galvanized Bolsonaro’s base, many of whom are determined to see him return to power.

The Push for Amnesty and the "Denial of Democracy"

One of the central themes of the rally was the call for amnesty for the hundreds of individuals who were arrested and convicted for their involvement in the January 8 riots. Bolsonaro and his supporters argue that these individuals were merely exercising their right to protest and that their convictions represent a violation of free speech and political expression. This narrative has been widely disputed by legal experts and government officials, who point out that the riots were not peaceful protests but acts of insurrection that sought to undermine the democratic order.

Bolsonaro himself has framed the issue of his eligibility to run in the 2026 elections as a matter of democracy. He has repeatedly claimed that any attempt to bar him from the race constitutes a "denial of democracy" in Brazil, echoing Trump’s claims of voter fraud and political persecution. This rhetoric has been effective in rallying his base, many of whom view the legal challenges he faces as an assault on their own political rights.

The Broader Implications for Brazil’s Democracy

Bolsonaro’s bid to return to power has significant implications for Brazil’s democracy. His presidency was marked by controversy, including accusations of authoritarianism, attacks on democratic institutions, and the erosion of environmental protections. His return to office could further polarize the country and deepen the divisions that have characterized Brazilian politics in recent years.

Moreover, the legal challenges Bolsonaro faces could set a precedent for how Brazil handles political leaders accused of crimes. If he is successful in overturning the ban on his candidacy, it could embolden other politicians to push the boundaries of democratic norms and institutions. On the other hand, if he is ultimately barred from running, it could lead to further alienation among his supporters, potentially destabilizing the political landscape.

The Road Ahead

As Brazil approaches the 2026 presidential elections, the question of whether Bolsonaro will be allowed to run looms large. His supporters remain steadfast in their loyalty, and his ability to mobilize large crowds and galvanize public sentiment should not be underestimated. However, the legal and political challenges he faces are significant, and the outcome of his bid to return to power is far from certain.

In the meantime, the broader implications of Bolsonaro’s comeback attempt will continue to shape Brazil’s political landscape. His rhetoric of victimhood and persecution has resonated with his base, but it has also deepened divisions and raised concerns about the stability of Brazil’s democracy. As the country moves forward, the success or failure of Bolsonaro’s bid to return to power will be closely watched, both within Brazil and around the world.