Carney won’t improve Canada-U.S. relations by matching Trump, Bolton warns

Canada’s New Prime Minister Warned About Matching Trump’s Rhetoric in Trade Talks

The transition of power in Canada with Mark Carney stepping in as the new Prime Minister has brought attention to the delicate diplomatic relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump. John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, has cautioned Prime Minister Carney against adopting a similar rhetorical style to Trump in future trade discussions. Bolton emphasized that mimicking Trump’s communication approach could exacerbate the already strained relations between the two neighboring countries. He advises Carney to focus on substantive issues rather than engaging in the kind of rhetoric that Trump is known for, which could lead to further deterioration in the relationship.

Current State of U.S.-Canada Relations Under Strain

Bolton remarked that the relationship between the U.S. and Canada during Justin Trudeau’s tenure as Prime Minister was already in a precarious state, suggesting that it "can’t get much worse" under Carney’s leadership. However, he underscored the importance of Carney’s choice of words in future interactions, warning against any overlap with Trump’s characteristic speaking style. Bolton’s advice is rooted in his belief that Trump’s rhetoric is not only difficult to emulate effectively but also counterproductive in achieving favorable outcomes in negotiations. He labelled the idea of matching Trump’s rhetoric as unwise, stating that "no sane person can do it" and that such an approach would not yield better results for Canada in trade talks.

The Impact of Rhetoric on International Relations

Bolton pointed to recent comments by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt as an example of how rhetoric can influence the perception of the U.S.-Canada relationship. Leavitt’s statement that Canada is "a neighbour, they are a partner… perhaps they are becoming a competitor now" highlights the potential consequences of language in shaping diplomatic dynamics. Bolton suggested that Leader should maintain a cautious approach, choosing to "grit your teeth" rather than make public statements that could escalate tensions. This approach reflects the understanding that public discourse can significantly affect the trajectory of international relations, particularly in the context of trade negotiations.

Canada’s Position in Ongoing Trade Disputes

Canadian officials, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford and federal ministers Dominic LeBlanc and Francois-Philippe Champagne, have been actively engaged in discussions with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. These meetings have yielded optimism about the possibility of negotiating a trade deal favorable to Canada. The trade war, which began in early March, has prompted Canada to consider implementing "reciprocal" tariffs on U.S. products starting April 2. Carney, in his first press conference as Prime Minister, expressed readiness to engage with Trump on trade issues but dismissed Trump’s recurring suggestion that Canada become the 51st U.S. state as "crazy." Carney’s stance reflects a firm commitment to Canadian sovereignty and a clear boundary in negotiations with the U.S.

Bolton’s Perspective on Trump’s Annexation Rhetoric

Bolton characterized Trump’s annexation rhetoric as "completely ridiculous" and not a genuine negotiation tactic, but rather a diversion from pressing economic issues such as falling stock markets and eroding consumer and business confidence resulting from the tariffs. He suggested that Trump is using the rhetoric to distract his political base from the adverse economic impacts of the trade war. Bolton’s assessment aligns with the view that Trump’s strategy lacks a coherent philosophy or long-term vision, instead being driven by short-term, reactive decisions. This lack of a grand strategy could have implications beyond the U.S.-Canada relationship, potentially affecting Trump’s dealings with other global leaders.

Implications for Global Diplomacy and Trade Relations

Bolton also warned that Trump’s unpredictable and reactive approach to policy could be exploited by leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin, who may seek one-on-one negotiations with Trump to manipulate the Ukraine conflict’s outcome. Bolton’s observations suggest that Trump’s leadership style, characterized by instinctive and unsubstantiated declarations, leaves room for external actors to influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. This dynamic underscores the broader challenges in navigating international relations under Trump’s presidency, where traditional diplomatic norms and long-term strategic planning appear to take a backseat to impulsive and often contradictory rhetoric.

In conclusion, the advice from John Bolton to Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasizes the importance of cautious communication in U.S.-Canada relations, particularly in the context of trade negotiations. The current state of the relationship, already strained under the previous administration, calls for a measured approach that prioritizes substantive dialogue over rhetorical exchanges. Bolton’s insights into Trump’s leadership style and its implications for global diplomacy highlight the complexities of engaging with a U.S. administration that often privileges short-term political gains over strategic, long-term planning. As Canada navigates this critical phase in its relationship with the U.S., the choice of language and approach in negotiations will be pivotal in shaping the outcomes of trade discussions and broader diplomatic engagement.