What’s left for a Conservative climate plan after the carbon tax?

Pierre Poilievre’s Plan to Scrap Canada’s Carbon Pricing System

In a significant move, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has officially announced that a future Conservative government would completely eliminate Canada’s carbon pricing system, including the federal backstop for large industrial emitters. This decision comes as part of Poilievre’s broader strategy to position the upcoming federal election as a referendum on the carbon tax, a policy he has repeatedly criticized as a "bad idea." By vowing to "axe the tax," Poilievre aims to capitalize on the current economic concerns of Canadians, particularly the rising cost of living, which has become a top priority for many voters.

The Implications of Eliminating the Carbon Tax

Poilievre’s announcement has sparked debates about how a Conservative government would address climate change without the federal carbon pricing system. The plan would remove both the consumer carbon tax and the federal backstop, which currently applies to large industrial emitters in provinces like Manitoba, Nunavut, Yukon, and Prince Edward Island. Provinces and territories would instead have the freedom to implement their own climate policies, shifting the responsibility away from the federal government. Critics argue that this approach could weaken Canada’s ability to meet its emissions reduction targets, as the federal backstop has been a crucial tool in regulating industrial emissions.

The Role of Industrial Emissions in Climate Policy

Michael Bernstein, president of Clean Prosperity, emphasizes that the industrial carbon price is the most effective policy for reducing Canada’s overall emissions. He notes that industrial pricing is the most cost-effective way to achieve emissions reductions and is supported by many industry associations. Bernstein warns that removing this tool would leave regulation or increased spending as the primary options, which could be more expensive and less efficient. This perspective highlights the potential risks of Poilievre’s plan, as industrial emissions account for half of Canada’s total emissions.

The Conservative Party’s History on Climate Change

The Conservative Party has struggled to present a coherent climate change strategy in recent elections. In 2015, the party’s perceived weakness on this issue contributed to its defeat, allowing Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party to come to power. Since then, successive Conservative leaders have proposed various alternatives to the carbon tax, such as tax credits, sector-by-sector regulations, and consumer incentives. However, these plans have often been criticized for lacking clear emissions reduction targets or for being less effective than a blanket carbon price. Poilievre’s current approach continues this trend, as he has not provided specific details on how his government would achieve emissions reductions without the federal carbon pricing system.

Climate Change as a Lower Priority for Canadian Voters

Despite the urgent need for climate action, recent polling data suggests that climate change has fallen down the list of priorities for Canadian voters. A poll by Abacus Data found that only 15% of voters identified climate change as a top issue, compared to 61% who cited the rising cost of living. This shift in public sentiment presents a challenge for political leaders who want to prioritize climate action. Poilievre’s focus on economic concerns may resonate with voters in the short term, but it also raises questions about how Canada will address the long-term challenges posed by climate change.

The Global Context of Climate Action

Pierre Poilievre has framed his approach to climate change as a global issue, emphasizing the need to bring production back to Canada from more polluting foreign jurisdictions. He argues that this strategy would reduce global emissions while supporting Canadian jobs. However, this perspective overlooks the importance of domestic emissions reductions and the role that Canada can play in leading international climate efforts. By eliminating the carbon tax, Poilievre’s plan may undermine Canada’s ability to meet its climate commitments and transition to a more sustainable economy. As the global community continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change, Canada’s approach will be closely watched by international partners and future generations.