What’s next in the Russia, Ukraine ceasefire talks?

A Fragile Truce: The Putin-Trump Agreement

Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a partial ceasefire with Ukraine on Tuesday, specifically halting attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. This decision followed a 90-minute phone call with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who described the conversation as "very good" and "productive." Trump took to social media to announce the agreement, stating that both leaders had reached an understanding to work toward a complete ceasefire and, ultimately, an end to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. However, the temporary truce excludes protections for Ukrainian troops on the front lines and civilians, who continue to endure relentless aerial bombardments. Despite the optimism from Trump, the agreement leaves many critical issues unresolved, raising questions about its long-term viability and whether Putin can be trusted to adhere to the terms.

Unresolved Issues: The Gaps in the Ceasefire

The ceasefire agreed upon by Putin and Trump is far from comprehensive. It does not address the safety of Ukrainian civilians or the protection of troops fighting on the front lines, leaving them vulnerable to continued attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office noted that Putin had effectively rejected a proposal for a full ceasefire, emphasizing that Russia’s attacks on civilians persisted even after the agreement. For instance, a Russian-fired Shahed drone struck a hospital in Ukraine’s Sumy region on the same day, further underscoring the fragility of the truce. Zelenskyy called on the international community to reject any attempts by Putin to prolong the war and urged the West to impose stricter sanctions on Russia, increase assistance to Ukraine, and strengthen security guarantees for Kyiv. He also stressed that a genuine cessation of strikes on civilian infrastructure would be the only credible step toward lasting peace.

Ukraine’s Response: Zelenskyy’s Skepticism

Zelenskyy’s skepticism about the ceasefire is rooted in Russia’s consistent disregard for international law and its continued aggression against Ukrainian civilians. He highlighted the need for concrete actions, such as the release of prisoners of war, the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children, and the withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territories. While the Kremlin announced a prisoner swap involving 175 individuals, it made no mention of the 20,000 Ukrainian children reportedly abducted and funneled through Russian adoption schemes. These unresolved issues, coupled with Russia’s ongoing aerial campaigns, have led Zelenskyy to view the ceasefire as insufficient and a potential smokescreen for further Russian aggression.

The US Perspective: Trump’s Optimism Meets Caution

The Trump administration has framed the partial ceasefire as a positive step, with Trump expressing hope that it could pave the way for broader negotiations. However, officials within the administration and beyond remain cautious, questioning whether Putin is genuinely committed to peace. Trump’s claim that Putin "wants to make peace" contradicts Zelenskyy’s assertions and raises concerns about whether the former U.S. president is naive about Russia’s intentions. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff revealed that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would travel to Saudi Arabia to discuss the agreement, signaling a continued U.S. role in mediating the conflict. However, the lack of civilian protections and the exclusion of key issues from the ceasefire leave many wondering whether the agreement is little more than a temporary pause in hostilities.

Broader Implications: NATO, EU, and the Road to Peace

The partial ceasefire has significant implications for the broader geopolitical landscape. European leaders and Zelenskyy have advocated for the deployment of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine to prevent future Russian invasions, a proposal Moscow has already signaled it would view as a threat. Additionally, issues such as Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, the supply of Western arms to Kyiv, and the status of Russian-occupied territories remain unresolved. These challenges underscore the complexity of achieving a lasting resolution to the conflict. The Trump administration’s support for preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership, reportedly due to concerns it could escalate the war, has further complicated negotiations. With so many contentious issues on the table, the path to peace appears fraught with obstacles.

A Long and Uncertain Road Ahead

The agreement between Putin and Trump represents a tentative step toward de-escalation, but it falls short of addressing the root causes of the conflict. As former CIA Moscow Station Chief Dan Hoffman warned, Putin’s primary objective remains the weakening of Ukraine to prevent it from resisting future Russian aggression. The absence of a comprehensive ceasefire, the continued targeting of civilians, and the unresolved issues surrounding prisoner releases, territorial control, and security guarantees all cast doubt on whether the current truce will lead to lasting peace. The international community, including the U.S., Europe, and NATO, must remain vigilant and continue to support Ukraine while pressing for a resolution that upholds Ukrainian sovereignty and ensures accountability for Russian aggression. For now, the road ahead is uncertain, and the world waits to see whether the fragile truce will hold or crumble under the weight of unresolved conflicts.