Sir Keir Starmer ‘must quickly’ raise defence spending or face ‘swingeing’ military cuts this year

Pressure Mounts on Sir Keir Starmer to Boost UK Defence Spending

Sir Keir Starmer is facing growing pressure to swiftly increase the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, a target he has previously pledged to meet. However, defence sources have warned that even this increase, which would amount to an additional £5 billion annually, falls short of what is truly needed to modernise and strengthen the UK’s armed forces. They argue that a further hike to at least 3% of national income is essential to address the deep-seated challenges facing the military. The urgency of the situation is compounded by the prospect of new military cuts this year if the funding shortfall is not addressed.

With the UK seeking to maintain its leadership role within NATO and strengthen ties with the new US administration under President Donald Trump, the stakes are high. Defence insiders have expressed frustration at the government’s slow pace in delivering the promised funding, warning that further delays could weaken the UK’s military capabilities at a time when global security threats are escalating. “The truth is, there needs to be more money now, or else prepare for further cuts,” said one military source. The pressure is particularly acute as President Trump has criticised European allies for their reliance on the US for defence, urging them to take greater responsibility for their own security.

The UK’s Defence Spending Dilemma

Defence sources have criticised the Treasury for attempting to delay the implementation of the 2.5% GDP target until the end of this parliament, a move that could leave the armed forces “to wither on the vine.” This delay would have serious consequences, as the UK’s military is already facing significant gaps in weaponry and manpower. A third defence source described the situation as “just not serious,” reflecting the exasperation felt by many within the defence community.

The UK’s current defence spending stands at 2.3% of GDP, and while the government has committed to raising this to 2.5%, the timeline for achieving this target remains unclear. Sir Keir has yet to announce when this commitment will be formalised, leaving defence planners in limbo. The lack of clarity has undermined confidence in the government’s ability to address the pressing needs of the armed forces. As one source put it, “Getting to 2.5% sooner rather than later would be enormously beneficial for their relationship with the new US administration.”

The Strategic Challenges of Deploying Troops to Ukraine

Amid the financial pressures, Sir Keir has also indicated that he is “ready and willing” to deploy UK troops to Ukraine to enforce any peace deal. This announcement has raised eyebrows within defence circles, as the UK’s military is already stretched thin. Deploying thousands of soldiers to Ukraine would require significant resources, and insiders have questioned how the government plans to address the army’s existing gaps in weapons and manpower.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has estimated that any international security force would need to be around 110,000-strong to ensure stability in the region. The UK would struggle to sustain such a deployment over an extended period, potentially forcing it to withdraw from other commitments, such as its NATO mission in Estonia. The deployment of UK troops to Ukraine would also require careful coordination with European allies and the US, further complicating the already fraught geopolitical landscape.

The Hollowed-Out State of the UK’s Armed Forces

The UK’s armed forces are in a state of flux, with years of underfunding and strategic missteps taking a toll on their capabilities. The army, Royal Navy, and Royal Air Force are all facing significant challenges, from outdated equipment to manpower shortages. Defence chiefs have warned that the current funding levels are insufficient to address these issues, let alone prepare for future threats.

In a highly unusual move, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the armed forces, and other senior military leaders met with Sir Keir to discuss the state of the UK’s military capabilities. This meeting underscored the urgency of the situation and the need for political leadership to address the systemic weaknesses in the armed forces. Meanwhile, an external review of defence policy, led by former Labour defence secretary and NATO secretary general Lord Robertson, is nearing completion. The review is expected to outline a roadmap for transforming the UK’s military, but its success will depend on whether the government is willing to provide the necessary funding.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

The UK’s defence spending debate is taking place against a backdrop of significant geopolitical shifts. President Trump’s administration has made it clear that it expects European allies to take on greater responsibility for their own security, particularly in supporting Ukraine and deterring Russian aggression. Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, has called for all 32 member states to aim for defence spending “north of 3%” of GDP, a target that the UK is still far from achieving.

The UK’s ability to project power and influence on the global stage is closely tied to its military capabilities. As a nuclear power and a key player within NATO, the UK has long positioned itself as a leader in European security. However, the hollowing out of its armed forces has raised questions about its ability to fulfil this role. The pressure to increase defence spending is not just about meeting numerical targets; it is about ensuring that the UK can continue to play a meaningful role in shaping global security.

The Path Forward for UK Defence

The coming months will be critical for the UK’s defence policy. With the Strategic Defence Review set to be published in the spring, there is an opportunity for the government to chart a new course and address the systemic challenges facing the armed forces. However, this will require more than just rhetoric; it will demand a commitment to increased funding and a clear vision for the future of the UK’s military.

For now, the government has sought to reassure critics that it is taking defence seriously. A spokesperson reiterated the government’s commitment to raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP and highlighted the additional £2.9 billion allocated for defence in the next year. However, this messaging has done little to ease the concerns of defence insiders, who argue that the UK’s military needs more than incremental increases to remain effective. As the pressure mounts on Sir Keir to deliver, one thing is clear: the decisions made now will have far-reaching consequences for the UK’s security and its place on the world stage.