Symbolism and substance as European leaders take small steps towards peace in Ukraine

A Show of Unity and Resolve: European Leaders Gather in London

On Sunday, European leaders and NATO allies convened in London, their gathering carrying both symbolic and substantive significance. The meeting came on the heels of a tense encounter in the White House between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which left many questioning the strength of transatlantic alliances. The symbolism of the event was clear: European leaders stood shoulder to shoulder with Zelenskyy, signaling unwavering support for Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. But beyond the optics, the summit also yielded concrete commitments, as European and NATO allies pledged to increase defense spending and strengthen their collective security in the face of Russian aggression.

The unity on display in London was not merely rhetorical. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to boost defense spending, emphasizing the need for Europe to create a "steel porcupine" that would be indigestible to potential invaders. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg echoed this sentiment, highlighting new commitments from European leaders to ramp up military expenditures. After decades of relying on the U.S. for security and reaping the benefits of a post-Cold War peace, Europe has come to realize that it must now take greater responsibility for its own defense. This shift reflects a growing uncertainty about whether the U.S. can still be counted on as a reliable ally, despite assurances from leaders like Sir Keir Starmer, the U.K. Prime Minister, who remains optimistic about the transatlantic partnership.

Europe Steps Up: A New Era of Defense Spending

The London summit marked a turning point for Europe, as it moves to shed its long-standing dependence on the U.S. for security. For years, European nations have funneled resources into health, education, and welfare programs, content to let the U.S. bear the bulk of the burden for defending the continent. But with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising global instability, Europe has been forced to confront a harsh new reality: it can no longer afford to outsource its defense.

This realization has spurred a surge in defense spending across the continent. European leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron of France, and Georgia Meloni of Italy, have emerged as key figures in this effort. Their commitment to increasing military expenditures is not only about numbers; it is about projecting strength and deterrence in the face of an increasingly assertive Russia. The goal, as von der Leyen put it, is to transform Ukraine into a formidable force that Russia would think twice before attacking.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer has positioned himself as a pivotal bridge between Europe and the Trump administration. Despite the fractious relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy, Starmer remains determined to salvage the partnership, recognizing that a strong transatlantic alliance is essential for securing peace in Ukraine. The U.K. has already signaled its willingness to contribute "boots on the ground and planes in the air" to support Ukraine, setting an example for other European nations to follow.

A Fragile Path to Peace: Negotiations and Challenges

The London summit also laid bare the daunting challenges ahead for negotiators. Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron had meticulously laid the groundwork for a potential peace deal, only to see their efforts undercut by the volatile Trump-Zelenskyy meeting in Washington. In the aftermath of that diplomatic fallout, Starmer spent the weekend working to bring the negotiations back on track, engaging both Zelenskyy and Trump in an effort to restore momentum.

The path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Even if Starmer and Macron manage to patch up relations between Trump and Zelenskyy, they will still need to contend with the unpredictable Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader has shown little inclination to compromise, and his calculus may shift further in response to the perceived fractures within the Western alliance. Trump, for his part, has already made one major concession to Putin by ruling out Ukraine’s NATO membership, a move that directly contradicts the stance of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

This decision has significant implications for Ukraine, as it effectively cedes control of the 20% of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia since 2022. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has demanded that Ukraine’s borders be restored to their pre-conflict lines, a position that Trump has refused to support. The divergence in priorities between the two leaders underscores the gulf that negotiators must bridge to achieve even a fragile peace agreement.

Testing Alliances: Europe Prepares for a Post-U.S. Security Order

The events of the past week have starkly illuminated the fragility of the Western alliance. Sir Keir Starmer’s efforts to mediate between Trump and Zelenskyy have placed him in the unenviable position of trying to hold together a partnership that is increasingly strained. While the U.K. Prime Minister insists that the U.S. remains a reliable ally, there is a growing sense across Europe that the continent must prepare for a future where it cannot depend on American security guarantees.

This recognition has galvanized European leaders into action. The "coalition of the willing" that Starmer spoke of on Sunday represents a new era of collective defense, with nations prepared to take concrete steps to protect Ukraine and uphold regional stability. The U.K. has already demonstrated its commitment, pledging military support and urging others to follow suit. Yet even with this newfound resolve, the reality remains that Europe’s hard power is still no match for Russia’s military might.

The hope is that a strong European commitment will persuade the U.S. to provide a "last resort" security backstop, even if it stops short of deploying troops on the ground. This would involve offering intelligence, air cover, and other forms of support to deter Russia from violating the terms of any eventual peace agreement. But such a scenario is far from certain, and Europe knows it must be prepared to stand on its own if necessary.

The Road Ahead: Optimism Tempered by Realism

As the London summit drew to a close, there was a cautious sense of optimism in the air. Despite the setbacks of recent days, Sir Keir Starmer and his fellow leaders believe that progress is being made. The Prime Minister described the quality of the discussions as “positive” and expressed hope that the momentum could be sustained in the days ahead.

Yet there is no illusions about the enormity of the task at hand. Bringing Russia to the negotiating table will require immense diplomatic effort, and even then, there is no guarantee that Putin will agree to terms that Europe and Ukraine find acceptable. The fracturing of the Western alliance has only emboldened the Russian leader, who may now calculate that he can extract greater concessions from a divided and uncertain West.

For now, the focus remains on rebuilding the relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy, as well as on bolstering Europe’s own defenses. Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are working tirelessly to prevent the complete collapse of the peace process, knowing that the stakes could not be higher. As Zelenskyy returned to the frontlines on Sunday evening, European leaders were reminded of the human cost of this conflict and the imperative to act with both urgency and unity.

Conclusion: A Call to Action for Europe and the World

The events of the past week have laid bare the deepening cracks in the Western alliance and the immense challenges that lie ahead. But they have also revealed a Europe that is beginning to Stir from its post-Cold War slumber, recognizing that it can no longer rely on others to secure its safety. As the London summit demonstrated, there is a growing willingness to take responsibility and to act with the resolve that the moment demands.

The road to peace in Ukraine will be long and fraught with obstacles, but there is still hope. Europe’s commitment to increased defense spending, coupled with its determination to stand as a united front against Russian aggression, offers a glimmer of light in an otherwise dark landscape. For now, the focus must remain onOSCIALIZING unity, preparing for the worst, and working tirelessly to bring all parties back to the negotiating table. The alternative, as Sir Keir Starmer and his fellow leaders know all too well, is a protracted and devastating conflict that would have far-reaching consequences for Europe and the world.