A Coalition of the Willing: Europe’s Plan for Ukraine’s Future

Introduction to the Coalition of the Willing

A "coalition of the willing" is emerging as a potential solution to provide boots on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. This concept, popularized by Sir Keir Starmer during recent European talks in London, suggests that a group of like-minded nations would come together to help secure peace in Ukraine. The initiative is being championed by the UK and France, with the goal of deterring further aggression from Russia. The coalition would act as a peacekeeping force, ensuring that Vladimir Putin does not have the opportunity to rearm and launch another attack. While the idea is still in its early stages, it reflects Europe’s growing determination to take a more active role in Ukraine’s defense and future.

What is a Coalition of the Willing?

The term "coalition of the willing" has historical roots, most notably from the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, where a group of countries joined forces to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Today, the phrase has been revived to describe a similar collective effort, this time focused on Ukraine. The coalition would consist of European and NATO member states willing to contribute troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine following a ceasefire. The idea is to create a united front that can operate outside the formal NATO structure, allowing countries to participate without requiring unanimous agreement from all NATO members. This approach sidesteps potential vetoes from nations like Hungary and Slovakia, which have been hesitant to support measures that might provoke Russia.

Who’s In: The Potential Members of the Coalition

The UK and France are leading the charge, with both nations expected to play significant roles in the coalition. As Europe’s foremost military powers—and the only European countries with nuclear capabilities—their involvement is crucial. France’s President Emmanuel Macron has previously hinted at the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine, further solidifying France’s commitment. The Baltic states—Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia—are also likely to join, given their proximity to Russia and their strong stance against Moscow’s aggression. Finland, another NATO member with a shared border with Russia, may also participate. Beyond Europe, Canada has expressed interest, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicating that "everything’s on the table" when it comes to supporting Ukraine.

Who’s Out: The Countries Opting Not to Contribute Troops

Not all European nations are eager to send troops to Ukraine. Poland, despite its strong military and support for Ukraine, has ruled out deploying soldiers, citing concerns about its own security and its long border with Ukraine and Belarus. Instead, Poland plans to provide logistical and political support. Spain is also hesitant, with its foreign minister stating it’s "too early" to discuss troop deployment. Additionally, Spain’s domestic crises and lower defense spending further reduce its likelihood of participating. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is another country unlikely to contribute troops. While Germany has provided significant support to Ukraine, its outgoing Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has ruled out deploying troops as peacekeepers. The incoming Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, may take a different stance, but this remains uncertain.

The Revival of a Familiar Phrase: Historical Context and Implications

The use of the term "coalition of the willing" is intentional, evoking memories of the US-led invasion of Iraq. While that intervention ended in chaos, the phrase carries weight, particularly in appealing to an American audience. For Europe, reviving this term may be a way to signal to the US that it is serious about taking on more responsibility for Ukraine’s defense. The hope is that this initiative will encourage the US to provide military and financial backing, serving as a security guarantee for any ceasefire agreement. The US, as NATO’s largest contributor, possesses unparalleled military capabilities and logistical support, making its involvement crucial for the success of the coalition.

The Role of the US and the Broader Implications

While the coalition of the willing is a European-led initiative, the US looms large as a potential backstop. As the world’s most powerful military force, America’s support would significantly bolster the credibility and effectiveness of any peacekeeping mission. However, the US response remains uncertain, particularly following recent tensions between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Europe, while collectively contributing more to Ukraine’s war effort than the US, still relies heavily on American leadership and resources. The coalition of the willing is, in part, a signal to Washington that Europe is prepared to step up and share the defense burden. If successful, this initiative could mark a turning point in how Europe approaches collective security, potentially paving the way for greater autonomy in addressing future conflicts.