A New Era of Security in Ukraine: European Troops and the Road to Peace

The conflict in Ukraine has entered a critical phase, with discussions among Western officials suggesting a potential deployment of British and other European troops to key locations within the country. These troops would not serve as traditional peacekeepers but as a "reassurance" force, aimed at securing major cities, ports, and critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. This proposed deployment is part of a broader strategy to restore stability and encourage the return of millions of Ukrainians who have fled the war. The idea, spearheaded by the UK and France, reflects a growing recognition of the need for a coordinated international effort to safeguard Ukraine’s future.

Central to this plan is the protection of Ukraine’s airspace and coastline. The deployment could involve satellites, spy planes, and drones to monitor and secure these areas. Additionally, there are discussions about an air policing-style mission, where fast jets based outside Ukraine could help reopen the country’s airspace to civilian flights. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian skies have been closed to passenger planes, and reopening them would be a significant step toward normalizing life for Ukrainians. NATO countries already patrol the airspace in the Baltic states and Romania, and a similar approach could be applied to Ukraine.

The naval component of this security mission is equally important. The Black Sea, a vital trade route, would need to be demined and patrolled to resume maritime traffic. The UK’s Royal Navy, along with Nordic allies, has been identified as a key partner in securing Ukraine’s shipping lanes. This effort would not only support economic recovery but also ensure the safe passage of goods and supplies, which are critical for the country’s survival. The deployment of warships and the resumption of maritime trade would signal a significant shift toward rebuilding Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure.

However, any European-led mission would require a strong "backstop" from the United States to deter Russian aggression. Sir Keir Starmer, the UK’s opposition leader, has emphasized the importance of US involvement, which could involve military aircraft based outside Ukraine. While the exact nature of this backstop remains unclear, its purpose would be to ensure that Russia does not attempt to re-attack Ukraine for fear of provoking a US response. This deterrent effect is seen as crucial to maintaining peace and stability in the region.

Despite these discussions, significant challenges remain. Russia has categorically opposed the deployment of any European or NATO forces in Ukraine, labeling it "unacceptable." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for a much larger international security force of around 110,000 personnel, reflecting the scale of the threat his country faces. However, Western officials are considering a more modest contingent of 25,000 to 30,000 troops, which they believe would be sufficient to provide reassurance without escalating tensions further.

Ultimately, Ukraine’s future hinges on the ability of its NATO allies to provide robust security guarantees. President Zelenskyy has made it clear that his country needs either a comprehensive international security framework or the resources to build its own million-strong army, supported by advanced air defense systems like the US Patriot system. As the war rages on, the clock is ticking. Ukraine’s leaders are calling for decisive action this year to end the conflict and restore peace. The proposed deployment of European troops represents a step in that direction, but it will require unity, commitment, and a willingness to address the complexities of the situation head-on.