7 key takeaways from the Israeli military’s report on what happened on Oct. 7

The October 7, 2023, Attacks: A Comprehensive Analysis of the IDF’s Investigation

1. Overview of the IDF’s Investigation and Findings

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has released its investigation into the events of October 7, 2023, and the days leading up to the devastating attacks by Hamas. The investigation, initiated in November 2023 and expanded in March 2024 under outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, reveals critical insights into the scale, planning, and execution of the assault. The report avoids making recommendations, leaving that responsibility to incoming Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir. The attacks resulted in the deaths of 829 Israeli civilians, 76 foreign nationals, and 415 security personnel, with 251 hostages taken into Gaza. Tragically, as of now, 101 hostages remain in captivity. The IDF attributes the failure to a fundamental misunderstanding of Hamas’ intentions and readiness for a large-scale surprise attack.

2. Hamas’ Strategic Planning and Execution of the Attack

The investigation highlights that Hamas’ planning for the October 7 attacks began nearly seven years earlier, with the formation of the "fundamental concept" in November 2016 and the development of an "initial plan" in July 2017. The plan was finalized in July 2019, with operational details set in August 2021. Hamas considered several dates, including key Jewish holidays such as Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, before settling on October 7, which coincided with Simchat Torah. The attack began on the night of October 6, with Hamas forces infiltrating Israel in three waves starting at 6:29 a.m. on October 7. Despite the IDF declaring a state of emergency and the Israeli Air Force (IAF) following suit, the rapid infiltration caught Israel off guard, with 3,400 militants inside Israeli territory by 9:00 a.m. The IDF eventually gained control of key areas by 9:00 p.m., but hundreds of attackers remained as late as midnight.

3. Intelligence Failures and Misassessment of Threats

A significant factor contributing to the tragedy was the IDF’s misassessment of Hamas’ capabilities and intentions. Prior to the attacks, the IDF focused primarily on threats from Iran and Hezbollah, viewing Hamas as a secondary threat. This misjudgment led to a belief that Hamas would not pursue a full-scale war and that the primary threats were limited to rocket and mortar attacks. Consequently, the IDF reduced troop presence along the Israel-Gaza border and relied heavily on defensive barriers, which proved ineffective against the scale of the attack. Intelligence failures were also critical, with the IDF admitting that it had gathered information on Hamas’ plans as early as 2018 but deemed them unfeasible. Additionally, signs of unusual Hamas activity on the night of October 6, such as the activation of Israeli SIM cards in Gaza, were not acted upon, highlighting systemic issues within the Intelligence Directorate.

4. The Role of the Israeli Air Force and Operational Challenges

The IAF performed well in terms of readiness, meeting and even exceeding defined standards except during periods of heavy rocket fire. However, these standards were insufficient for the scale and ferocity of the attack. The IDF acknowledged that distinguishing between IDF troops, civilians, and terrorists was a significant challenge, complicating operational effectiveness. While the IAF successfully struck key Hamas command centers, the IDF admits that it is unclear whether a more effective strike effort could have been mounted under the circumstances. A key takeaway from the investigation is that the IDF had become overly reliant on precise intelligence, failing to consider alternative scenarios.

5. Lessons Learned and Future Strategic Adjustments

The IDF’s report underscores the need for a fundamental shift in its approach to threats from Gaza. The investigation reveals that the IDF’s assessment of Hamas was deeply entrenched, leaving little room for discussion of alternative possibilities. Moving forward, the IDF acknowledges that its strategy of "conflict management" with Hamas was flawed and that prioritizing the removal of threats is essential. The report also emphasizes the importance of preventative strategies to address potential future attacks, given the ongoing threat posed by Hamas.

6. Conclusion: Reflecting on the Past and Preparing for the Future

The events of October 7, 2023, serve as a stark reminder of the complexity and brutality of modern warfare. The IDF’s investigation paints a sobering picture of intelligence failures, misassessment of threats, and systemic issues within its intelligence Directorate. However, the report also provides a roadmap for future preparedness, with a renewed focus on proactive strategies and a willingness to learn from past mistakes. As Israel moves forward, the lessons of October 7 will undoubtedly shape its military doctrine and strategic planning for years to come.