African Union is in desperate need of a new beginning

A New Era for the African Union: The Election of Mahmoud Ali Youssouf

On February 15, 2023, during the 38th African Union (AU) summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, African leaders made a significant decision by electing Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s long-serving foreign minister, as the new chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). Youssouf emerged victorious in a competitive race against Raila Odinga, the former prime minister of Kenya, and Richard Randriamandrato, Madagascar’s former foreign affairs minister. This election marked the beginning of a new chapter for the AU, as Youssouf takes over from Moussa Faki Mahamat, who served two consecutive four-year terms as the leader of the AUC. With over 18 years of experience as Djibouti’s foreign minister, Youssouf brings a wealth of diplomatic expertise to the role. His manifesto outlines ambitious goals, including advancing governance and democracy, strengthening institutional capacity, and fostering peace and security across the continent. However, the challenges he faces are formidable, and his success is far from guaranteed.

The Weight of Expectations: Youssouf’s Vision and Challenges

Youssouf assumes office at a critical juncture in Africa’s history. The continent is grappling with persistent conflicts, political instability, and socioeconomic challenges. Among the most pressing issues are the ongoing wars in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which demand immediate attention and diplomatic intervention. Youssouf’s ability to leverage his diplomatic experience to address these conflicts will be crucial in determining his legacy. His manifesto emphasizes the need for stronger governance and institutional capacity, which are essential for tackling the root causes of Africa’s problems. However, the reality is that African leaders have historically been reluctant to cede significant power to the AU, limiting its ability to implement meaningful change. This reluctance raises questions about how much Youssouf can achieve during his tenure.

Lessons from the Past: Moussa Faki Mahamat’s Tenure

To understand the challenges Youssouf may face, it is worth examining the tenure of his predecessor, Moussa Faki Mahamat. When Mahamat took office in 2017, he expressed confidence in his ability to “silence the guns” and achieve an Africa free of conflicts by 2020. While he successfully mediated the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in 2022, ending the devastating Tigray war, his broader ambitions were largely unfulfilled. Conflicts in Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Somalia, and Mozambique persisted, and the AU’s efforts to address them were often hampered by a lack of political will from member states. Mahamat’s frustration with African leaders was evident in his address to the 37th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly in February 2024, where he criticized their reluctance to implement AU decisions and their disregard for continental frameworks like the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA).

The Systemic Weaknesses of the African Union

Mahamat’s experience highlights the systemic weaknesses that have long plagued the AU. One of the most significant issues is the lack of compliance with AU decisions and judgments. A 2022 report by the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR) revealed that only 7 percent of its judgments had been fully implemented, while a staggering 75 percent had been ignored entirely. This systemic defiance underscores the broader challenge of enforcing accountability among African leaders. Many leaders view the AU as a tool for advancing their personal or national interests rather than a platform for collective action. This mindset has weakened the organization’s ability to address pressing challenges, from conflict resolution to governance and human rights. For Youssouf to succeed, he must navigate this complex web of interests and work to strengthen the AU’s authority.

Case Studies in Inaction: Sudan, Mozambique, and Beyond

The consequences of the AU’s systemic weaknesses are evident in countries like Sudan and Mozambique. In Sudan, the AU failed to act decisively against the authoritarian regime of President Omar al-Bashir, which ultimately led to a series of coups and a devastating civil war. Similarly, in Mozambique, the AU has been unable to address the armed rebellion in Cabo Delgado, which has displaced over 1.3 million people and created a humanitarian crisis. These examples illustrate the AU’s chronic inability to enforce good governance and hold leaders accountable for their actions. The organization’s inaction has emboldened leaders to ignore its frameworks and protocols, perpetuating cycles of instability and human suffering. For Youssouf to make a difference, he must break this cycle and establish a new era of accountability and action.

A Call to Action: Empowering the AU for the Future

The election of Mahmoud Ali Youssouf presents an opportunity for renewal within the AU, but it also underscores the urgent need for systemic change. To succeed, Youssouf must be granted the independence and resources necessary to enforce compliance with AU conventions and hold member states accountable. Without these tools, he risks repeating the mistakes of his predecessor and failing to address the continent’s most pressing challenges. African leaders must recognize that the AU’s effectiveness is not a threat but a necessity for the continent’s progress. By empowering the AU to act decisively, they can help create a future marked by peace, stability, and prosperity for Africa’s 1.5 billion people. Youssouf’s tenure has the potential to be transformative, but it will require bold leadership and a collective commitment to change.