Fighting flares in South Sudan: Is the 2018 peace deal in danger?

South Sudan’s Rising Tensions: A Nation on the Brink

Introduction: A Delicate Peace Unravels
South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is once again staring into the abyss of chaos. The fragile peace established by the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) is under severe strain as tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar escalate. Recent days have seen the South Sudanese army surround Machar’s residence in Juba, high-level arrests, and dismissals of officials loyal to the vice president. These actions have sparked fears that the country may plunge back into the civil war that ravaged it from 2013 to 2018. With a humanitarian crisis already gripping the nation, the international community is sounding the alarm, urging both leaders to engage in dialogue to prevent further escalation.

A Troubled History: Roots of Conflict
South Sudan’s independence in 2011 was meant to usher in a new era of peace and prosperity after decades of conflict with Sudan. However, the optimism was short-lived. Political tensions within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) quickly surfaced, exacerbated by deep ethnic divisions. President Kiir, a Dinka, and Vice President Machar, a Nuer, found themselves at the center of these tensions. In 2013, Kiir dismissed Machar, leading to the outbreak of a brutal civil war that lasted five years, displaced millions, and claimed over 400,000 lives. The conflict also saw the rise of various armed groups, often along ethnic lines, further complicating the peace process.

The 2018 Peace Deal: A Promise Yet to Be Fulfilled
After years of devastation, the 2018 peace agreement brought hope to South Sudan. Brokered by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the agreement aimed to unify the warring factions, disarm armed groups, and pave the way for democratic elections. However, progress has been alarmingly slow. Key provisions such as the unification of armed forces, the drafting of a new constitution, and the conduct of elections remain unfulfilled. Instead, intermittent violence has persisted, and the recent clashes in Upper Nile State threaten to derail the peace process entirely. The involvement of external groups, such as the White Army, a Nuer militia, has further complicated the situation, with accusations of collusion with Machar’s SPLM/IO faction.

The Current Crisis: Violence and Political Crackdown
The latest surge in tensions began in February 2023 with fighting in Upper Nile State. Rumors of a government-run disarmament program sparked clashes between the South Sudanese army and local armed groups, resulting in civilian casualties and the injury of a UN peacekeeper. The situation escalated in March when President Kiir ordered the arrest or dismissal of several high-ranking officials linked to Machar. These included General Gabriel Duop Lam, a deputy army chief, and Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol. Machar himself has been effectively placed under house arrest, with soldiers surrounding his Juba home. These actions have drawn widespread condemnation from both domestic and international observers, who view them as a clear violation of the 2018 peace agreement.

Regional and International Calls for Calm
As the situation in South Sudan continues to deteriorate, regional and international actors are urging restraint. Kenyan President William Ruto, leading the Tumaini Peace Initiative, has personally appealed to both Kiir and Machar to engage in dialogue. Similarly, IGAD and a coalition of Western embassies have issued statements calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities and adherence to the peace agreement. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has also expressed concern over the use of heavy weaponry and the potential for broader instability. However, despite these efforts, the willingness of both sides to compromise remains in question.

The Humanitarian Toll: A Nation in Crisis
Beyond the political and military dimensions, South Sudan’s ongoing instability has inflicted immense suffering on its population. Over 7.6 million people face food shortages, and one in four children is malnourished, according to the World Food Programme (WFP). The humanitarian crisis is exacerbated by funding shortfalls, with the WFP reporting a $412 million deficit to address the emergency. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has also warned that U.S. aid cuts could disrupt vital aid programs, leaving millions without assistance. These challenges are further compounded by the influx of refugees from neighboring Sudan, straining already limited resources.

Conclusion: The Path Forward
South Sudan stands at a critical juncture. The recent arrests and the standoff between Kiir and Machar threaten to unravel the hard-won gains of the 2018 peace agreement. For the country to move forward, both leaders must demonstrate the political will to resolve their differences through dialogue and adhere to the commitments outlined in the R-ARCSS. The international community must also remain vigilant, providing both the financial and diplomatic support necessary to stabilize the region. Ultimately, the future of South Sudan hinges on the ability of its leaders to prioritize the well-being of their people over personal and political ambitions. The world watches with bated breath as this young nation struggles to navigate its way toward peace and prosperity.