Peacemaker or peacebreaker? Why Kenya’s good neighbour reputation is marred

Kenya’s Aggregate of Contentious Diplomatic Decisions: An Explainer

In February, the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, played host to a rather uncustomary diplomatic event that has set off a firestorm of criticism. A congregation of Sudanese military leaders and politicians assembled at a popular events center, but instead of the Kenyan flag, the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) banner was on display. This meeting underscored Kenya’s apparent support for the RSF, a paramilitary group embroiled in a brutal conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The repercussions of this gathering have been profound, with both Sudanese and international entities expressing vehement disapproval, branding Kenya’s stance as irresponsible and complicit in genocide.

The Sudanese conflictšetřThe origins of this conflict trace back to April 2023 when RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, alias Hemedti, and SAF chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan severed their alliance following a power struggle post a military coup. This rupture plunged Sudan into chaos, resulting in over 60,000 fatalities and the displacement of 11 million individuals. Both factions have been indicted for potential war crimes, with the RSF facing severe allegations, including ethnic cleansing and genocide against non-Arab communities. The United States has explicitly accused the RSF of genocide, targeting populations based on ethnicity. Efforts by regional bodies like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to mediate peace have been in vain, exacerbating the crisis. Meanwhile, the global community watches with bated breath as Russia and The Gulf States reportedly support opposing sides, complicating the conflict further.

Kenya’s Role: From Peacebroker to Partisan Actor

Historically, Kenya has been a key player in East African peace processes, hosting pivotal negotiations in Somalia in 2004 and the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005, which paved the way for South Sudan’s independence. However, under President William Ruto’s leadership, Kenya’s foreign policy has taken a controversial turn. The recent hosting of RSF leaders in Nairobi and the refusal to support peacekeeping missions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have led analysts to question Kenya’s neutrality and motives, with some suggesting strategic alliances with influential leaders or economic interests, such as a $1.5 billion UAE loan, as potential drivers.

The DRC Dimension: A Brewing Storm

Parallel to the Sudanese crisis, Kenya’s relations with the DRC have deteriorated following its hosting of M23 rebel leaders, a group accused of violence and ties to Rwanda. This move has deepened tensions, with the DRC accusing Kenya of accommodating rebels while leading a regional peacekeeping mission. The expulsion of EAC forces from the DRC and the subsequent M23 advances, seizing key cities and displacing thousands, have intensified the conflict. Analysts criticize Kenya’s contradictory stance, questioning how a mediator can host belligerents, undermining its role as a neutral peacekeeper.

Domestic Fallout: Ruto’s Leadership Under Fire

The fallout extends beyond foreign relations to Kenya’s domestic front. Protests against Ruto’s economic policies have turned violent, with reports of police brutality leading to fatalities and disappearances. Public discontent is palpable, with social media campaigns urging Ruto’s resignation. This internal turmoil coupled with external diplomatic missteps has eroded Kenya’s standing as a stable regional leader, prompting reflections on the nation’s foreign policy direction and its impact on regional stability.

Conclusion: A Steep Decline in Diplomatic Prestige

The aggregate of Kenya’s recent foreign policy decisions represents a significant departure from its historical role as a regional peacebroker. By seemingly supporting factions in both Sudan and the DRC, Kenya risks not only its diplomatic reputation but also regional stability. Experts warn of long-term consequences, including diminished influence and trust, making recovery challenging. As Kenya grapples with internal and external crises, the path forward requires a reevaluation of its foreign policy to reclaim its mantle as a neutral and effective regional mediator.