To avoid another conflict in the Horn of Africa, now is the time to act

The Strategic Crossroads of the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa stands as a pivotal crossroads, bridging continents and civilizations. Its strategic waters, essential for global trade, connect Europe, Asia, and the Americas, making it a hotspot for geopolitical rivalry. This volatile region, much like the Middle East, is a flashpoint for great powers and local actors, each vying for influence. The strategic significance of the Horn of Africa is underscored by its vital waterways, which sustain millions and connect the world, yet this importance also attracts conflict and competition, leaving the region in a perpetually turbulent state.

Eritrea’s Role and Leadership Under Isaias Afwerki

At the heart of this turmoil is Eritrea, a nation whose history is marked by a relentless pursuit of conflict under the leadership of President Isaias Afwerki. Since 1993, Afwerki has ruled with an iron fist, steering Eritrea into nearly every regional conflict, from the Great Lakes to the Red Sea. His regime, akin to a pyromaniac’s impulses, thrives on igniting and sustaining conflict, often to the detriment of regional stability. Afwerki’s Eritrea lacks the trappings of governance—no constitution, parliament, or civil service—yet it excels in diplomacy by fire, shaping its foreign policy through military interventions and strategic alliances.

Eritrea’s Domestic Struggles and Exodus

Within Eritrea, the regime’s grip is suffocating. Mandatory and indefinite military service has become a defining feature, driving a mass exodus of youth fleeing a dystopian reality. The country’s landscape is marked by repression, where hope is scarce and escape is the only solace. This human rights crisis fuels a refugee wave, with Eritreans risking everything to reach safety, underscoring the regime’s draconian policies and the desperation of its people.

Eritrea’s Impact on Regional Stability

Eritrea’s involvement in regional conflicts is both extensive and destructive. From backing rebels in Sudan to supporting insurgents in Somalia, Afwerki’s regime destabilizes the region, hampering peace efforts and fostering chaos. Its interventions, often self-serving, exacerbate existing tensions, leaving devastation in their wake and undermining efforts towards regional cooperation and stability.

The TPLF, Ethiopia, and the Pretoria Peace Agreement

The conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, involving the TPLF, is a significant case in point. Despite the 2018 peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea, brokered by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Afwerki’s reluctance to embrace peace led to Eritrea’s involvement in the renewed Tigray conflict in 2020. The Pretoria Agreement, ending hostilities, was met with resistance from Afwerki, who seeks to undermine it by backing TPLF factions. This move threatens to unravel the fragile peace, plunging Ethiopia and the region into renewed turmoil.

Global Implications and the Need for Action

The stakes could not be higher. As conflicts rage in Sudan and Somalia, and extremism advances, the Horn’s instability poses a global threat. A resurgence of conflict in Tigray would have far-reaching consequences, from destabilizing the region to threatening global trade routes and security. The international community must act decisively—supporting peace agreements, fostering cooperation, and addressing governance and development needs. The Horn of Africa’s future hinges on choosing stability over chaos, with the world’s involvement crucial in shaping this outcome.