America’s Rivals Are Reaping Benefits of Jailing US Civilians

America’s Adversaries Are Using Hostage Diplomacy to Gain Leverage

The United States is facing an increasingly brazen strategy from its adversaries, particularly Russia and Belarus, who are detaining American civilians to force Washington into lopsided deals that serve their own political and strategic interests. Experts warn that this tactic, often referred to as hostage diplomacy, is becoming more common and more one-sided, emboldening leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to seize U.S. citizens as bargaining chips.

Recent events highlight the growing trend. Russia has exchanged high-profile prisoners such as crypto kingpin Alexander Vinnik for American teacher Marc Fogel, arms dealer Viktor Bout for basketball star Brittney Griner, and convicted assassin Vadim Krasikov for Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Marine veteran Paul Whelan, and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva. Meanwhile, Belarus is reportedly considering the release of dissidents and an American citizen in exchange for sanctions relief, according to the New York Times. These exchanges are raising alarms among experts, who fear they could encourage further detentions and undermine U.S. credibility.

Hostage Diplomacy: A Dangerous Game  

"Hostage diplomacy" is a term used to describe when governments use their criminal justice systems to effectively take foreigners hostage, leveraging their detention for political gain. Danielle Gilbert, an assistant professor at Northwestern University who advises Western governments on hostage recovery, notes that Moscow is "unquestionably leveraging the detention of U.S. citizens for political gain." Russia’s recent prisoner swap with the U.S., which saw the release of Marc Fogel, a history teacher from Pennsylvania sentenced to 14 years in prison for carrying medical marijuana, marks a shift in this strategy.

Fogel’s release came after the U.S. government designated him as "wrongfully detained" in October. While former President Donald Trump, who brokered the deal, described it as "very fair," Gilbert points out that the swap appears to have involved significant and unprecedented policy concessions to Putin. This raises concerns that the U.S. is setting a dangerous precedent, potentially encouraging Russia and other adversarial states to detain more Americans in hopes of extracting similar concessions.

Belarus Follows Russia’s Playbook  

Belarus, a key ally of Russia, seems to be adopting a similar approach. According to a report by the New York Times, Lukashenko’s government is considering releasing political dissidents and an American citizen in exchange for sanctions relief. The reported deal would involve easing U.S. sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports, a key ingredient in fertilizers. Christopher W. Smith, a deputy assistant secretary of state, and two other American officials reportedly met with Lukashenko in Minsk to discuss the potential exchange.

This move aligns with a broader pattern of autocratic governments using detainment as a tool for strategic leverage. By mimicking Russia’s tactics, Belarus is signaling its willingness to use similar methods to extract concessions from the West. The potential release of political prisoners and an American citizen suggests that Lukashenko is seeking to ease international pressure while maintaining a firm grip on power.

Biden vs. Trump: Contrasting Approaches to Hostage Diplomacy  

The issue of hostage diplomacy has also highlighted stark differences in how the Biden and Trump administrations have handled prisoner exchanges with Russia and Belarus. Ukrainian journalist Viktor Kovalenko notes that Trump demonstrated greater flexibility in dealing with these regimes, showing a willingness to make critical policy compromises—such as lifting sanctions or negotiating a peace deal in Ukraine—to secure the release of American citizens.

In contrast, the Biden administration has taken a firmer stance, refusing to compromise on key policy matters such as NATO expansion, sanctions, or Ukraine-related issues. Instead, Biden has focused on exchanging spies and criminals for American citizens and opposition leaders. However, the recent swap involving Fogel and Vinnik suggests a shift in this approach, with Trump appearing to concede more to Russia than previous deals. Gilbert observes that this deal resembles a ransom "drop" more than a traditional prisoner exchange, raising questions about the long-term implications for U.S. policy.

Hostage Diplomacy: A Sign of Putin’s Weakness?  

Despite the apparent success of these tactics, some experts argue that Russia’s reliance on hostage diplomacy reflects its growing desperation. According to Kovalenko, Putin’s use of this strategy intensified after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and the subsequent annexation of Crimea. Since then, Russia has faced increasing isolation and economic sanctions, leaving it with limited leverage over the West.

"Russia is running out of real leverage over the U.S., so it resorts to this terrorist method to gain at least something," Kovalenko says. "This is a sign of Russia’s weakness." By detaining foreigners, Putin hopes to create a sense of urgency and force the U.S. into concessions. However, this approach risks further alienating Russia and undermining its already strained relationships with Western powers.

The Risks of Hostage Diplomacy: A Dangerous Precedent  

The growing use of hostage diplomacy by Russia and Belarus poses a significant challenge for the U.S. and its allies. As relations with the West continue to deteriorate, these regimes are likely to detain more foreigners, particularly those with potential access to classified information or ties to Western security services.

The recent prisoner exchange involving Vinnik and Fogel has raised concerns about the potential for further concessions, with some analysts suggesting that the deal could be tied to Trump’s broader efforts to negotiate a peace deal over Ukraine. Meanwhile, several U.S. citizens remain detained in Russia and Belarus, including Stephen Hubbard, Travis Leake, Gordon Black,