Navigating the Shifting Geopolitical Landscape: Insights from ASEAN

Introduction: The Evolving Security Dynamics in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is at the heart of a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, where emerging technologies, rising tensions between global powers, and climate change are reshaping the region’s security dynamics. As Malaysia assumes the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2023, Defence Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin has outlined a forward-looking agenda aimed at addressing these challenges. Among the key areas of focus are the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on regional security, strengthening the defence supply chain, and establishing a humanitarian relief taskforce to combat the growing threat of natural disasters exacerbated by climate change.

Malaysia’s Vision for ASEAN: Strengthening Regional Resilience

As the chair of ASEAN, Malaysia is leveraging its leadership position to address critical issues that directly impact regional stability. Minister Khaled has emphasized the need for ASEAN member states to collectively understand and mitigate the risks posed by AI, particularly in the context of defence and security. This includes both the potential benefits of AI in enhancing military capabilities and the dangers of its misuse, which could escalate regional tensions. Additionally, Malaysia is advocating for the advancement of the region’s defence supply chain, recognizing that a resilient and self-reliant defence ecosystem is essential for long-term security. Another key priority is the creation of a humanitarian relief taskforce, which will enable ASEAN to respond more effectively to climate-related disasters, such as floods, typhoons, and wildfires, that are becoming increasingly frequent and devastating.

Maritime Security and the South China Sea: A Call for Diplomacy

Maritime security remains a critical concern for ASEAN, particularly in the South China Sea, where overlapping territorial claims and rising tensions between China and the United States have created a volatile environment. Minister Khaled has rightly cautioned against military build-up in the region, urging claimant states to resolve disputes through diplomatic channels rather than resorting to confrontation. He also stressed the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation and adhering to international law, principles that are cornerstone to regional stability. The South China Sea is not only a vital trade route but also a potential flashpoint for superpower rivalry, making it imperative for ASEAN to play a mediating role in safeguarding peace and preventing the region from becoming a battleground for external powers.

The Complexities of ASEAN Unity in a Divided World

ASEAN faces significant challenges in maintaining unity and consensus amidst growing external pressures. The bloc’s member states are increasingly pulled in different directions, influenced by their individual economic, political, and strategic relationships with major powers such as China, the United States, and Russia. Observers note that the rising tensions between Beijing and Washington have created a particularly challenging environment for Southeast Asian nations, as they seek to balance their ties with both powers. This divisive dynamic complicates ASEAN’s ability to present a unified front on key geopolitical issues, undermining its collective bargaining power and ability to shaping regional outcomes. The current global context, marked by ongoing conflicts, shifting alliances, and an unpredictable international order, further underscores the need for ASEAN to reaffirm its centrality in regional affairs.

ASEAN Centrality: The Backbone of Regional Stability

ASEAN centrality, a principle that emphasizes the bloc’s leading role in regional cooperation and diplomacy, has been repeatedly highlighted by Malaysian Defence Minister Khaled as a cornerstone of stability in Southeast Asia. He argued that ASEAN’s ability to maintain its centrality is crucial not only for addressing the challenges facing the region but also for engaging effectively with external partners and navigating the complexities of a rapidly changing world. By upholding ASEAN centrality, the bloc can ensure that its member states remain united in addressing shared challenges and seizing opportunities for cooperation. This principle is particularly relevant in the context of the South China Sea, where ASEAN must assert its leadership to prevent external powers from dominating the narrative and undermining regional stability.

Expert Insights: Navigating an Extraordinary Period of Global Change

The geopolitical landscape is undergoing unprecedented transformation, marked by ongoing conflicts, the breakdown of traditional alliances, and the emergence of new partnerships. According to Sharon Seah, coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, the world is in “a very extraordinary period of developments” that demands careful navigation by Southeast Asian nations. She emphasized the need for ASEAN member states to adopt a realistic and pragmatic approach in their dealings with major powers, particularly the United States under the unpredictable Trump administration. Such an approach would enable ASEAN to maintain its autonomy and strategically position itself to maximize opportunities while minimizing risks in an increasingly uncertain world. As global tensions continue to rise, the ability of Southeast Asian nations to stay united, adapt to change, and assert their collective influence will be critical in shaping the region’s future.