Commentary: If the US is a ‘landlord seeking rent’, how must Southeast Asia rethink defence?

Navigating a Shift in U.S. Involvement in Asia: Strategic Choices and Implications

Introduction: Understanding the New Landscape

The possibility of the United States scaling back its economic and security engagements in Asia presents a significant challenge for the region. Asian countries now face a critical juncture where they must reevaluate their strategic alignments and partnerships. This shift could lead to a reconfiguration of regional dynamics, urging nations to explore new alliances and strategies to maintain stability and prosperity.

Exploring Strategic Responses

Asian nations are considering various strategies in response to a potential reduction in U.S. involvement. One approach could be for countries within the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to forge ahead independently, leveraging their collective strengths to fill the void left by the U.S. Additionally, collaboration with middle powers such as Australia, India, and Japan—key members of the Quad—could enhance regional security and economic cooperation, as seen in recent partnerships between Japan and Indonesia.

Engaging with China: A Delicate Balance

Some Asian countries, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, may need to reassess their stance towards China, especially regarding contentious issues like the South China Sea. While maintaining territorial integrity remains crucial, establishing diplomatic guardrails to prevent conflict escalation could be essential. This approach balances assertiveness with the need for dialogue and cooperation.

The Trump Factor: Unpredictable Deal-Making

The reappearance of Donald Trump on the political scene introduces unpredictability, particularly his penchant for direct deal-making with major powers like China. This could bypass regional interests, potentially affecting hotspots such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Such unilateral actions might undermine regional stability, urging Asian countries to be vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their interests.

The Consequences of U.S. Withdrawal

A U.S. withdrawal from its traditional leadership role in Asia would signify a significant shift in the global order. Singapore’s former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong underscored the historical benefits of U.S. leadership, suggesting that while new configurations would emerge, it would come at a cost. This sentiment resonates today, highlighting the need for Asian nations to adapt and build new alliances to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Conclusion: Adapting to the New Reality

In the face of these challenges, Asian countries must recalibrate their strategies, possibly diversifying partnerships and strengthening regional cooperation. While the road ahead is uncertain, the region’s resilience and adaptability offer hope for navigating this new era. As Senior Fellow William Choong notes, the situation calls for strategic foresight and collaboration to ensure continued stability and prosperity in Asia.