Commentary: South Korea braces for a tougher Trump on trade and US military protection

A New Reality for US Allies in Asia

The world is witnessing a dramatic shift in US foreign policy under the Trump administration, particularly in how America engages with its allies. This new approach is already reshaping alliances in Europe, and its implications are now beginning to reverberate across the Indo-Pacific region. At the heart of this shift is a more transactional view of international partnerships, where alliances are no longer seen as enduring commitments based on shared values but as deals that must benefit the US directly. This mindset is raising questions about the future of US alliances and the stability of regions like Asia, where the balance of power is already delicate.

Trump’s Transactional Foreign Policy

Mr. Trump’s foreign policy has introduced a new era of transactional diplomacy, where every relationship is evaluated based on its immediate benefits to the US. In Europe, this has been evident in his approach to NATO, where he has repeatedly demanded that member states increase their defence spending to meet the alliance’s target of 2% of GDP. His direct engagement with Russia over Ukraine has also raised eyebrows, suggesting a willingness to bypass traditional alliances in pursuit of deals that serve US interests.

Now, this approach is extending to US troop deployments overseas. Mr. Trump has long viewed these deployments as a form of mercenary protection, arguing that the US should be compensated for its military presence abroad. This was evident in his recent negotiations with Ukraine, where he proposed a minerals deal as a form of compensation for US aid. Such a mindset undermines the notion of alliances as reciprocal partnerships and reduces them to simple financial transactions.

Regional Implications in the Indo-Pacific

If this approach is extended to the Indo-Pacific, it could have far-reaching consequences. The region is already a hotspot for geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and its democratic neighbours. If the US begins to question its commitment to defending its allies, it could embolden China to pursue its territorial claims more aggressively. This could lead to a regional arms race, as countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia scramble to bolster their defences.

The situation could be further complicated by existing tensions between key US allies in the region. For instance, Japan and South Korea have a history of rivalry, which could intensify if the US reduces its involvement. Additionally, the lack of a credible US security guarantee could push these nations to develop their own nuclear deterrents to counter China’s growing military might. South Korea, in particular, might feel compelled to go nuclear, which would have destabilising effects across the region.

South Korea’s Vulnerable Position

South Korea is likely to be the first country in the region to feel the pressure of Mr. Trump’s approach. As a smaller and less strategically important ally compared to Japan, South Korea may find itself under greater scrutiny. The US has long provided a security umbrella for South Korea, but if Mr. Trump begins to question the value of this alliance, Seoul could face immense pressure to either placate the US with concessions or chart a more independent course.

Despite its smaller size, South Korea has the military and economic capability to assert its independence if necessary. Its defence spending is twice the European average, and its military is well-equipped and well-trained. South Korea’s defence industrial base is also robust, capable of mass-producing weapons and ammunition. These factors give South Korea more flexibility than European allies, who are heavily reliant on the US for their security. If the US pressures South Korea too heavily, it may decide that its interests are better served by distancing itself from Washington.

Europe vs Asia: Different Paths to Security

The situation in Europe provides a stark contrast to the potential path Asia might take. European nations have allowed their military capabilities and defence production capacities to atrophy, making them heavily dependent on the US for their security. This has given Mr. Trump significant leverage over European allies, as seen in his dealings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Europe’s inability to replace American support for Ukraine has left it vulnerable to US pressure, with little room to manoeuvre.

In contrast, South Korea’s stronger military and economic position gives it more options. While Japan remains America’s most important partner in the region, South Korea’s relative independence could allow it to pursue a more balanced foreign policy, possibly even strengthening ties with China or Russia if it feels the US is no longer a reliable partner. This could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, as other nations may also begin to question their reliance on the US.

The Future of US Alliances

As Mr. Trump continues to apply pressure on US allies, they are faced with a difficult choice: placate the US with concessions, or drift toward a more independent foreign policy. For Europe, the latter option is fraught with challenges, given its limited military capabilities and defence production capacity. However, for nations like South Korea, the path to independence is more viable, thanks to their robust defence industries and higher defence spending.

The implications of this shift are profound. If the US continues to question its commitment to its allies, it could lead to a fragmented and unstable international order. In the Indo-Pacific, this could embolden China’s expansionist ambitions, while also driving a regional arms race and potentially even nuclear proliferation. The consequences of Mr. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy could therefore be far-reaching, reshaping the global security landscape in ways that may be difficult to reverse.