Commentary: Why are Australia and New Zealand so worried about China’s live-fire naval exercises?

Why China Conducted Exercises in the Region

The question of why China conducted military exercises in the South Pacific, far from its own shores, is both intriguing and significant. It is important to note that China could have easily chosen to carry out these exercises closer to its coastline. However, the decision to do so in a distant region speaks volumes about China’s growing military capabilities and its strategic interests. The South Pacific, though geographically remote, has become a focal point for China as it seeks to expand its influence and presence in the Indo-Pacific. These exercises demonstrate China’s ability to project power beyond its immediate territorial waters, showcasing its naval capabilities and signaling its intent to be a global player.

Moreover, these exercises serve as a form of intelligence gathering. Every time the Chinese Navy operates in these waters, it gains invaluable experience in navigating unfamiliar regions. This operational experience allows China to refine its tactics, test its equipment, and assess the responses of regional actors like Australia and New Zealand. By doing so, China is not only enhancing its military preparedness but also sending a message about its growing ambitions in the Pacific. The fact that China is increasingly engaging with some Pacific Island nations, such as the Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands, further suggests that its presence in the region is likely to become more frequent and more pronounced. As these relationships deepen, the Chinese Navy’s visits to the South Pacific may become a regular occurrence, further solidifying China’s foothold in the region.

Strategic Implications for Australia and New Zealand

The presence of the Chinese Navy in the South Pacific raises important questions for Australia and New Zealand, both of which are strong advocates for a rules-based international order. The law of the sea, which underpins this order, grants nations the right to conduct military exercises in international waters, provided they do so peacefully and in accordance with international law. For Australia and New Zealand, this creates a challenging dynamic. While they may have concerns about China’s growing influence in their backyard, there is little they can do legally to obstruct these activities. However, they are not without options to respond to this new reality.

First and foremost, both countries can enhance their air and naval surveillance of Chinese activities in the region. This would allow them to monitor China’s movements more closely, gathering intelligence on the nature and scale of these exercises. However, this approach comes with its own challenges. Constantly shadowing the Chinese Navy in the South Pacific would place a significant strain on Australia’s and New Zealand’s defense resources, which are already stretched thin. Additionally, there is the risk of accidental escalation. To mitigate this, both countries would need to ensure that their naval and air forces are not placed in positions where they could inadvertently come into conflict with the Chinese Navy. Avoiding such confrontations is crucial, as even a minor incident could spiral into a larger crisis.

Options for Australia and New Zealand

Given the complexities of the situation, Australia and New Zealand have several options at their disposal. The first option is to strengthen their surveillance capabilities, as mentioned earlier. This would involve deploying more resources to monitor Chinese naval activities in the South Pacific. However, as noted, this approach is not without its challenges. The cost of maintaining such a presence would be high, and there is always the risk of an unintended clash. Despite these challenges, enhanced surveillance could provide valuable insights into China’s intentions and activities in the region.

A second option is to work through international organizations to establish clear guidelines for how nations should conduct themselves in international waters. For instance, Australia and New Zealand could collaborate with bodies like the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to develop agreed-upon practices for activities such as high seas live-fire tests. By advocating for greater transparency and advance notification, they could help reduce the risk of misunderstandings and potential conflicts. This approach would not only address the immediate concerns surrounding China’s exercises but also contribute to a more stable and predictable international maritime environment.

The Role of Diplomacy and Regional Engagement

Diplomacy and regional engagement are also critical components of any response. While military exercises and surveillance are important, they are only part of the equation. Australia and New Zealand can leverage their relationships with Pacific Island nations to foster a sense of regional unity and shared purpose. By strengthening ties with these nations, they can work together to address common challenges and promote a stable and secure Indo-Pacific. This approach would not only counterbalance China’s growing influence but also reinforce the rules-based international order that both countries steadfastly support.

Moreover, engaging with China directly through diplomatic channels could also yield benefits. By maintaining open lines of communication, Australia and New Zealand can express their concerns and seek to understand China’s intentions more clearly. This approach could help to reduce tensions and prevent misunderstandings that might arise from China’s increased presence in the region. However, this is not to suggest that Australia and New Zealand should shy away from asserting their interests. Rather, diplomacy should be seen as a complement to, not a replacement for, other measures.

The Path Forward

As the Indo-Pacific continues to evolve, Australia and New Zealand will need to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. China’s growing presence in the South Pacific is a reality that is unlikely to diminish anytime soon. For these two nations, the key will be to find a balance between asserting their interests, maintaining regional stability, and avoiding unnecessary conflict. By leveraging a combination of surveillance, diplomacy, and international cooperation, they can address the challenges posed by China’s exercises while upholding the principles of the rules-based order they cherish.

In conclusion, China’s military exercises in the South Pacific are a manifestation of its growing power and influence. For Australia and New Zealand, the response must be nuanced and multifaceted. While there are no easy answers, the options available to them—including enhanced surveillance, international cooperation, and diplomacy—offer a way forward. As the region continues to change, the ability of these two nations to adapt and respond will be crucial in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific.