Can Australia’s alliance with the US survive the test of Trump?

The Evolution of the Australia-US Alliance: Can It Withstand the Trump Era?

The alliance between Australia and the United States has long been considered the cornerstone of Australian security and foreign policy. For decades, this partnership has weathered numerous challenges, from the Cold War to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, the era of Donald Trump’s presidency introduced unprecedented uncertainties into this relationship, raising questions about its future resilience. As the world navigates the complexities of a changing geopolitical landscape, the question on everyone’s mind is: Can this historic alliance survive the test of Trump?

The Historical Bedrock of the Alliance

The Australia-US alliance, formalized through the ANZUS treaty in 1951, has been a cornerstone of Australian security for over seven decades. The relationship is built on shared values of democracy, mutual respect, and strategic interests. Over the years, Australia has been a steadfast ally to the United States, supporting American-led military operations in Korea, Vietnam, and more recently, in the Middle East. This loyalty has earned Australia the reputation as one of Washington’s most reliable partners. Yet, the alliance is not just about military cooperation; it extends to economic, cultural, and diplomatic ties that have deepened over generations. The mutual trust and cooperation between the two nations have been a bedrock of stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

However, this foundation of trust is beginning to show cracks. The unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy, coupled with his administration’s disregard for traditional alliances, has left many in Australia questioning whether the United States can still be relied upon as a stable and committed partner. The shift in American priorities under Trump has forced Australia to rethink its strategic assumptions and consider a future where its oldest ally may no longer be the rock it once was.

The Trump Effect: A New Era of Uncertainty

Donald Trump’s presidency marked a significant departure from the traditional norms of American foreign policy. His “America First” agenda prioritized unilateral action over multilateral cooperation, creating ripple effects across the globe. For Australia, this shift was both confusing and concerning. The country has historically benefitted from a rules-based international order, which the United States had long championed. Under Trump, however, the United States appeared to be retreating from this leadership role, leaving allies like Australia grappling with the implications.

One of the most significant challenges posed by the Trump administration was its approach to regional security. Trump’s impulsive decision-making, such as his sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, raised concerns about Washington’s commitment to maintaining stability in critical regions. For Australia, which has consistently supported U.S.-led operations, such actions undermining trust and credibility. Moreover, Trump’s dismissive attitude toward key international institutions, such as NATO and the United Nations, further eroded confidence in the alliance.

Perhaps even more troubling for Australia was the Trump administration’s transactional approach to diplomacy. Unlike previous U.S. leaders who valued long-term strategic partnerships, Trump often framed relationships in terms of immediate gains and losses. This approach left Australia wondering whether its decades of loyalty and cooperation would count for little in a world where alliances were treated as bargaining chips. The unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy created an environment of uncertainty, forcing Australia to question whether its reliance on the United States was still viable.

A Changing World Order: Implications for Australia

The challenges posed by the Trump presidency are not isolated to the Australia-US alliance; they reflect broader shifts in the global landscape. As the world moves toward a multipolar order, with rising powers like China and India reshaping the balance of power, Australia finds itself at a crossroads. The United States, once the undisputed leader of the free world, is no longer the sole hegemonic power. This shift has necessitated a reevaluation of Australia’s foreign policy, with a greater emphasis on diversifying its relationships and building new partnerships.

China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region has further complicated Australia’s strategic calculations. While Australia has sought to maintain a delicate balance between its economic ties with China and its security alliance with the United States, the Trump administration’s confrontational approach to Beijing has made this balancing act increasingly difficult. The trade war between the United States and China, coupled with Trump’s attacks on Chinese technology companies like Huawei, has placed Australia in an awkward position. On one hand, it wants to maintain its strong economic relationship with China; on the other, it is under pressure from the United States to take a firmer stance against Chinese expansionism.

In this context, the Australia-US alliance is being tested in ways it has never been before. While the alliance remains important, it is no longer the only game in town. Australia is increasingly looking to diversify its partnerships, engaging more deeply with regional players like Japan, India, and Southeast Asian nations. This shift reflects a recognition that the future of Australian security and prosperity will depend on its ability to navigate a more complex and multipolar world. While the United States will likely remain a key partner, Australia can no longer afford to rely solely on its traditional ally.

Australia’s Response: Navigating the New Normal

In response to the challenges posed by the Trump era, Australia has begun to chart a more independent course in its foreign policy. This does not mean a complete break from the United States; rather, it reflects a pragmatic recognition that the alliance must evolve to meet the demands of a changing world. Australian leaders have acknowledged the importance of maintaining a strong relationship with the United States while also building new partnerships and strengthening regional institutions.

One of the most significant steps Australia has taken in this regard is its increased engagement with the Indo-Pacific region. The government has emphasized the need for a more self-reliant foreign policy, one that leverages Australia’s unique position as a bridge between the United States and Asia. This approach has involved strengthening ties with countries like India and Japan, as well as deepening cooperation with Southeast Asian nations through forums like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). By fostering these relationships, Australia aims to create a more resilient and inclusive regional security architecture.

In addition to diversifying its partnerships, Australia has also sought to enhance its own military capabilities. Recognizing that it can no longer completely rely on the United States for its defense, Australia has embarked on a major modernization of its armed forces. This includes the acquisition of advanced submarines, fighter jets, and missile defense systems. The goal is to ensure that Australia can play a more active role in regional security, both independently and in cooperation with its allies.

Perhaps most importantly, Australia has sought to reaffirm its commitment to the rules-based international order. While the Trump administration has often been critical of this system, Australia sees it as essential for maintaining stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. By championing multilateralism and supporting key international institutions, Australia is signaling its determination to uphold the principles of cooperation and collective security, even as the United States appears to be pulling back.

The Future of the Alliance: Challenges and Opportunities

As the world moves beyond the Trump era, the Australia-US alliance faces both challenges and opportunities. While the relationship has been strained by the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy, it remains a vital component of Australian security and diplomacy. The key to its survival will be the ability of both nations to adapt to the changing global landscape and find new ways to work together in pursuit of shared goals.

One of the most immediate challenges will be repairing the trust that has been eroded during the Trump years. For Australia, this means ensuring that the United States is once again seen as a reliable and committed partner. While the Biden administration has sought to restore America’s role as a leader of the free world, the scars of the Trump era will take time to heal. Building trust will require sustained engagement and a renewed commitment to the principles of the alliance.

At the same time, the alliance must evolve to address the emerging challenges of the 21st century. This includes not only traditional security threats but also issues like climate change, cybersecurity, and economic inequality. By expanding the scope of their cooperation, Australia and the United States can ensure that their partnership remains relevant and effective in a rapidly changing world.

In the end, the survival of the Australia-US alliance will depend on the ability of both nations to navigate the complexities of the new world order. While the challenges posed by the Trump era are significant, they also present an opportunity for renewal and growth. By reaffirming their commitment to shared values and deepening their cooperation on key issues, Australia and the United States can ensure that their alliance continues to play a vital role in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific region.