Half of Canadians, Americans think their countries are in recession: poll

Economic Concerns Bridge Borders: Canadians and Americans Share Recession Fears Amid U.S. Tariff Threats

As the United States and Canada navigate the uncertain waters of international trade, a recent poll reveals that citizens of both nations are increasingly anxious about their economic futures. Roughly half of Canadians and Americans surveyed believe their countries are currently in a recession, despite official indicators suggesting otherwise. This shared perception highlights the deepening economic unease on both sides of the border, amplified by U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats of imposing devastating tariffs on Canada.

The Leger survey, conducted between February 14 and 17, polled 1,550 Canadians and 1,000 Americans, providing a snapshot of cross-border sentiment. The results show striking similarities in how Canadians and Americans view their economic circumstances. Approximately 50% of Canadians and 51% of Americans polled believe their respective countries are already in a recession. While neither country is officially in a recession, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce warns that Trump’s proposed 25% across-the-board tariffs could shrink Canada’s economy by $78 billion and push it into a recession by next summer. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, would also suffer a significant hit of $467 billion.

Household Finances: Paycheque-to-Paycheque Reality for Many

The survey also sheds light on the financial health of households in both countries. In Canada, 54% of respondents described their household finances as being in good shape. However, a significant portion of the population—46%—admitted to living paycheque to paycheque, a number slightly lower than in the U.S., where 59% of respondents reported the same financial reality. Sébastien Dallaire, Leger’s executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, points to these findings as evidence of growing economic vulnerability.

Dallaire emphasizes that while income inequality is a challenge in both countries, the social safety net in Canada provides more protection for individuals facing financial difficulties. “In Canada, you have more backup if things go south,” he explains, contrasting this with the U.S., where the absence of a robust safety net makes financial hardships more severe. This disparity is reflected in the differing levels of economic anxiety reported by respondents in each country.

Employment Anxieties: Job Security Fears on the Rise

The poll also reveals a troubling trend in employment confidence. Among employed Canadians, 39% expressed worry about losing their jobs within the next 12 months—a three-point increase since the previous month. This growing sense of insecurity underscores the broader economic uncertainty felt by many Canadians. Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate in Canada stood at 6.6% in January 2025, according to Statistics Canada.

While the U.S. boasts a stronger economy overall, its wealth gap and less comprehensive social safety net contribute to greater financial stress for many Americans. Dallaire highlights this contrast, noting that while the U.S. is a wealthier nation with more economic influence, its citizens often face tougher conditions when struggling to make ends meet.

The Toll of Trade Tensions: Policy and Perception

The survey’s findings cannot be separated from the broader context of trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. Trump’s tariff threats have cast a shadow over the economic outlook for both nations, contributing to the sense of uncertainty captured in the poll. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has warned that the proposed tariffs could have dire consequences, shrinking Canada’s economy and pushing it into recession by mid-2025. Similarly, the U.S. economy would not be immune to the fallout, with estimated losses of $467 billion.

These economic fears are compounded by the psychological impact of prolonged uncertainty. As trade relations remain unstable, consumers and businesses alike are left grappling with the potential consequences of escalating tariffs. This climate of doubt has likely contributed to the widespread perception of a recession, even as official data suggests otherwise.

Bridging Perceptions and Reality: The Role of Policy and Communication

The poll underscores the importance of clear communication and policy stability in shaping public perception. While neither Canada nor the U.S. is currently in a recession, the mere threat of tariffs has been enough to unsettle both economies. For Canadians and Americans alike, the fear of economic instability is palpable, with many bracing for the worst.

Policymakers on both sides of the border would do well to address these concerns directly. By providing clarity on trade negotiations and emphasizing measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs, leaders can help alleviate some of the economic anxiety reflected in the survey. Strengthening social safety nets and supporting vulnerable populations could also help shore up confidence in the face of uncertainty.

Conclusion: Shared Fears, Shared Futures

The Leger survey paints a vivid picture of a shared economic psyche between Canadians and Americans, unified by concerns about recession, job security, and household finances. While the specific challenges faced by each country differ, the underlying anxieties are remarkably similar. As both nations navigate the complex and interconnected global economy, the survey serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between perception, policy, and prosperity.

Ultimately, the findings highlight the need for cooperation and communication to address the shared economic challenges that lie ahead. By working together, Canada and the U.S. can better navigate the uncertainties of the global economy and build a more resilient future for all.