Liberals top Tories for 1st time in years, new Ipsos polling says

Shift in Political Landscape: Liberals Gain Edge Over Conservatives

The Canadian political scene has seen a significant shift, as a recent Ipsos poll reveals the Liberal Party overtaking the Conservatives for the first time since 2021. Conducted between February 21 and 24, 2025, the poll indicates that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would secure 38% of the decided votes, surpassing the Conservatives’ 36%. This marks a notable turnaround, as the Conservatives had held a substantial 26-point lead just six weeks prior.

Reasons Behind the Liberal Resurgence

The resurgence of Liberal support can be attributed to several factors. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation has sparked interest in the party’s leadership race, with figures like Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland emerging as prominent contenders. Additionally, the looming threat of U.S. tariffs, set to take effect on March 4, has shifted public focus to immediate economic concerns, potentially benefiting the Liberals who are seen as stable handlers of international relations.

Regional Support: A Detailed Breakdown

The shift in political tides is evident across various regions. Central Canada, particularly Quebec and Ontario, has shown a marked increase in Liberal support. Atlantic Canada is also leaning towards the Liberals, while the Conservatives maintain their strength in Western Canada. This regional dynamic highlights the diverse political landscape and the challenges each party faces in consolidating support nationwide.

Conservative Strategy and Challenges

Despite their current lead in Western Canada, the Conservatives are grappling with a decline in national support. Leader Pierre Poilievre has emphasized issues like the carbon price, but the party’s messaging is being overshadowed by the Liberals’ leadership race and external economic threats. The Conservatives’ new "Canada First" strategy aims to revitalize their campaign, but they face an uphill battle in regaining momentum amidst evolving political focal points.

External Pressures and Public Sentiment

The impending U.S. tariffs have intensified calls for a federal election, with 86% of Canadians desiring an immediate vote to ensure a strong government mandate. This urgency underscores the public’s concern over economic stability and Canada’s international standing. The situation has complicated the political landscape, with parties scrambling to address both internal leadership transitions and external economic pressures.

Implications for the Next Election

As the political arena continues to evolve, the outcome of the next election remains uncertain. The Liberals’ resurgence and the Conservatives’ strategic challenges highlight a highly competitive race. The ability of each party to navigate internal changes and external threats will be crucial in determining the next government. With the election looming, all eyes are on how these dynamics will unfold and shape Canada’s political future.