Why a former CSIS official says the U.S. is positioned for ‘another 9/11’

Impact of U.S. Intelligence Cuts on National Security: A Canadian Perspective

Introduction to Concerns
Dan Stanton, a former executive manager for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), has expressed concerns that recent cuts to U.S. intelligence agencies under the Trump administration could heighten the risk of a significant security threat akin to the 9/11 attacks. These cuts, including buyouts and firings at agencies like the FBI and CIA, are reducing the effectiveness of U.S. intelligence, which could have cascading effects on Canada’s security due to the two nations’ intelligence-sharing partnership.

Reduction in Intelligence Capabilities
The U.S. has been offering buyouts to encourage voluntary resignations, leading to a loss of experienced personnel. Additionally, the Trump administration fired prosecutors involved in the January 6 Capitol riot cases and is reviewing agents’ roles, signaling potential further political firings. Stanton warns that replacing seasoned officers with less experienced individuals could disrupt the monitoring of threats from entities like ISIS, Russia, and China, potentially weakening both U.S. and Canadian security.

Risks to Intelligence Sharing
Vincent Rigby, a former advisor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, fears the U.S. might use intelligence as a negotiating tool, impacting Canada’s access to critical information. While Canada benefits from the Five Eyes alliance, which includes the U.S., there are concerns about possible cutbacks in non-threat intelligence, such as political or economic data. However, Stanton believes essential security intel on terrorism and espionage will likely continue to be shared due to professional commitments within the agencies.

Potential for Increased Espionage
There is growing concern that the U.S. might target Canada as part of a broader strategy for "hemispheric control," as suggested by Steve Bannon. This could involve spying on Canadian government or private sectors to support U.S. trade policies. Stanton notes that while this would be a significant breach of trust, it would require substantial time and resources to implement effectively.

Cultural Shifts Within Agencies
Stanton also highlights the risk of cultural changes within U.S. intelligence agencies, potentially leading to inefficiencies and politicization. While immediate changes at the top might not drastically alter operations, shifts at lower levels could gradually impact the agencies’ focuses. If these agencies become politicized, they may prioritize political agendas over security, undermining their effectiveness.

Conclusion: A Vulnerable Future
The reduction in U.S. intelligence capabilities poses a dual threat: diminished security against external threats and potential increased spying on allies like Canada. The concern is not just about immediate cuts but also about long-term cultural shifts within these agencies, which could erode their professionalism and objectivity. As a result, Canada faces a vulnerable future, emphasizing the need for vigilance and strategic planning to mitigate these risks.