The Looming Threat of U.S. Tariffs on Saint John: A City on Edge

Saint John, New Brunswick, is bracing for the impact of looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, with political leaders and businesses warning that the city is the most vulnerable in the country. The tariffs, imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, have sparked concerns about inflation, economic disruption, and potential job losses. Fraser Walls, board chair of the Saint John Chamber of Commerce, has highlighted the potential consequences, stating that tariffs would lead to inflation on both sides of the border, creating financial strain for households and businesses alike. The situation remains precarious, with the tariffs paused for 30 days following a phone call between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Trump. However, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome has left the city and its industries on high alert.

The Hard Numbers: Saint John’s Vulnerability

New research by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce has revealed that Saint John would bear the brunt of U.S. tariffs more than any other Canadian city. Using Statistics Canada trade data, the organization developed a “U.S. Tariff Exposure Index” to assess the potential impact of the tariffs on 41 Canadian cities. Saint John topped the list as the most vulnerable, largely due to its heavy reliance on exports to the United States. The city is home to the Irving Oil refinery, the largest crude oil refinery in Canada, which processes over 320,000 barrels daily, with more than 80% of that oil being exported to the U.S. This dependence on cross-border trade makes Saint John uniquely susceptible to tariff-related disruptions.

The Irving Oil refinery has expressed concerns about the tariffs, emphasizing their potential to increase prices for U.S. customers and undermine energy security. In a statement, the refinery called for urgent collaboration between governments and industries to resolve the issue. The broader economic implications of the tariffs extend beyond the energy sector, with seafood and forestry products also being major exports from New Brunswick to the U.S. In 2023 alone, the province traded $15.5 billion worth of goods with its southern neighbor, a significant portion of which originated from Saint John. The tariffs threaten to disrupt this vital trade relationship, with potentially devastating consequences for the local economy.

The Ripple Effect: Industries Beyond Energy

While the energy sector is undeniably the most exposed to the tariffs, other industries in Saint John are also at risk. Seafood and forestry products, which are among New Brunswick’s top exports to the U.S., could face significant challenges as tariffs drive up costs and reduce demand. This ripple effect could impact businesses across the supply chain, from fishermen and lumberjacks to processors and exporters. The tariffs also threaten to disrupt the intricate web of trade relationships that have been built over decades, leaving many businesses scrambling to find alternative markets or mitigate the financial impact.

Fraser Walls of the Saint John Chamber of Commerce has warned of a potential multi-billion dollar impact on the local economy, urging collective action to reduce reliance on the U.S. market. This sentiment is shared by Saint John Coun. Brent Harris, who believes the city has a unique opportunity to repatriate supply chains and diversify its economic base. Harris points to the city’s underutilized cargo facilities, including the Saint John Airport, as a potential hub for expanding trade in new directions. With its deep-water port and direct rail links, Saint John has the infrastructure to become a key player in global trade, provided the necessary investments are made.

A Call to Action: Diversification and Resilience

The looming tariffs have served as a wake-up call for Saint John and the broader Maritime region. While the immediate focus is on navigating the current crisis, the long-term solution lies in diversifying trade partnerships and reducing dependence on the U.S. market. Cities like Saint John must explore new markets, invest in infrastructure, and foster innovation to build a more resilient economy. This is not just about weathering the current storm but about positioning the city for future success in an increasingly unpredictable global trade landscape.

As the U.S. tariffs continue to loom over Saint John, the city’s leaders are urging governments and industries to work together to find a resolution. The stakes are high, but so is the potential for transformation. By leveraging its unique advantages and embracing change, Saint John can turn this challenge into an opportunity to build a stronger, more diversified economy—one that is better equipped to withstand the uncertainties of the future.