Zelenskyy sees post-Trump polling bump. What about other world leaders?

How Trump’s Leadership Style is Unintentionally Boosting Global Approval Ratings

U.S. President Donald Trump’s unconventional approach to international relations, particularly his attacks on world leaders, has had an unexpected side effect: it’s increasing their popularity at home. This phenomenon, often referred to as the "rally around the flag" effect, occurs when leaders experience a surge in approval ratings during times of perceived external threats or crises. Political science experts note that this isn’t just a coincidence; it’s a psychological response where citizens unite in support of their leaders as a show of patriotism and solidarity against an external adversary.

Trudeau, Zelenskyy, and Others Benefit from Trump’s Rhetoric

Leaders like Canada’s outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy have been direct beneficiaries of this phenomenon. Trudeau’s approval ratings, which had reached historic lows of 22%, bounced back to 34% following Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric about annexing Canada. Similarly, Zelenskyy, whose popularity had dipped from over 80% in 2022 to 60% by late 2023, saw his trustworthiness rise from 57% to 67% in polls conducted during a period when Trump labeled him a "dictator." This pattern suggests that when Trump criticizes foreign leaders, their domestic support often strengthens as citizens rally behind them in response to what is perceived as an external threat.

Macron, Starmer, and Sheinbaum: The Ripple Effect Across the Globe

The impact of Trump’s leadership isn’t limited to North America and Eastern Europe. European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have also experienced boosts in their approval ratings despite struggling domestically. Macron’s popularity climbed by seven points to 31%, while Starmer’s net approval rose by ten points to minus 23. These increases are linked to their roles in supporting Ukraine, which has positioned them as strong leaders on the international stage. Similarly, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who is already highly popular, saw her approval rating soar to an impressive 85%, likely due to Trump’s tariff threats and antagonistic rhetoric towards Mexico.

The "Rally Around the Flag" Effect: Historical Context and Implications

This phenomenon isn’t new. Historically, leaders have seen their approval ratings spike during times of national crisis. For example, former U.S. President George W. Bush’s ratings surged after the September 11 attacks, and his father, George H.W. Bush, experienced a similar boost during the Gulf War. However, what’s unique about Trump’s impact is that the "external threat" isn’t a traditional adversary but rather the actions and rhetoric of another nation’s leader. This dynamic is reshaping how citizens perceive their own leaders, particularly as Trump’s policies and statements are often viewed as controversial and polarizing.

Trump’s Influence on Domestic Politics: A Double-Edged Sword

While Trump’s actions have inadvertently bolstered the approval ratings of foreign leaders, his influence on domestic U.S. politics tells a different story. The Democratic Party, for instance, has seen its support drop to an all-time low of 21%, while the Republicans enjoy a record-high 40% approval rating. This divide underscores the polarizing nature of Trump’s presidency, which has both unified opposition internationally and deepened partisan divisions at home. Additionally, Trump’s impact on global elections is evident, as leaders who have adopted populist rhetoric similar to his are facing increased scrutiny from voters who have observed his governance style.

Looking Ahead: The Challenges and Opportunities for Global Leaders

Looking ahead, the challenge for leaders like Canada’s incoming Liberal leader Mark Carney is to leverage this "rally around the flag" effect while distinguishing themselves from Trump’s polarizing influence. Carney has already framed his leadership as a direct contrast to Trump, accusing his conservative opponent of emulating Trump’s approach. This strategy may resonate with voters who are wary of Trump’s policies and rhetoric but want strong, independent leadership. The success of this approach will depend on how effectively leaders can navigate the complex geopolitical landscape shaped by Trump’s unconventional presidency.

In conclusion, Donald Trump’s tenure has inadvertently strengthened the popularity of various world leaders by triggering a "rally around the flag" response among their citizens. While this phenomenon offers short-term benefits for leaders like Trudeau, Zelenskyy, Macron, Starmer, and Sheinbaum, it also highlights the broader challenges of navigating a world where Trump’s influence continues to be a dominant factor. As global politics evolve, the ability of leaders to address both domestic concerns and international relations in this unpredictable environment will be crucial to their sustained success.