Germans Head to the Polls as Conservative CDU Eyes Victory, While Far-Right AfD Gains Traction

Sunday’s German elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the country, as the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, is widely expected to unseat Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD). However, the election has also drawn international attention, with figures like Elon Musk and U.S. Vice President JD Vance weighing in on the political landscape. At the heart of the debate is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has been gaining momentum despite its controversial reputation.

International Spotlight on Germany’s Elections: Musk and Vance Enter the Fray

The German elections have unexpectedly become a talking point in international political circles. Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of Tesla and X (formerly Twitter), has openly endorsed the AfD, claiming it is the only party capable of solving Germany’s economic challenges. His comments have sparked outrage among German politicians, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz accusing Musk of attempting to interfere in the country’s elections. Musk’s support for the AfD intensified following a stabbing incident in Munich, where he tweeted, “Only AfD can save Germany,” further polarizing the debate.

Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance has also entered the fray, meeting with AfD leader Alice Weidel at the Munich Security Conference. Vance criticized Germany’s “firewall” policy, which prevents mainstream parties from cooperating with the AfD. This policy, implemented to isolate the far-right party, reflects the broader consensus among Germany’s political establishment to avoid legitimizing the AfD’s divisive rhetoric. Vance’s actions have raised eyebrows, as they suggest a level of U.S. support for a party often criticized for its extremist ties.

AfD’s Rising Influence and the "Firewall" Policy

Despite the backlash, the AfD is poised for its strongest electoral performance yet, potentially doubling its vote share from 2021. If current polling holds, it could become Germany’s second-largest political party. The AfD’s success stems from its ability to capitalize on public anxieties over immigration, economic stagnation, and security concerns. However, the party remains a pariah in mainstream politics due to its controversial rhetoric and alleged ties to extremist groups.

Anna Hardage, a fellow in European Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council, explains that Germany’s major parties have established a “firewall” to prevent collaboration with the AfD. This strategy aims to marginalize the party and prevent it from gaining political power. However, Hardage notes that even if the AfD is excluded from government coalitions, its influence on public discourse will likely endure, as it has successfully framed debates around key issues like migration and economic policy.

Migration, Economy, and Security: The Issues Driving AfD’s Popularity

The AfD’s rise is closely tied to its campaign for stricter immigration controls, a response to the influx of migrants into Germany and the EU in recent years. The party has exploited fears over violent incidents involving migrants, positioning itself as the only voice willing to address these concerns head-on. Rafael Loss, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, points out that the AfD’s narrative of blame—linking migration to economic and security challenges—has resonated with voters disillusioned with the ruling coalition’s handling of these issues.

Friedrich Merz and the CDU have responded by shifting further to the right on immigration and security policies, aiming to win back voters who might otherwise drift toward the AfD. Merz has framed his party as a stable, centrist alternative to both the SPD and the AfD, emphasizing the importance of upholding Germany’s traditional alliances while addressing voters’ concerns about law and order.

Economic Woes and the Looming Shadow of a Trump-Style Trade War

Germany’s economic struggles have also become a central issue in the election. The post-pandemic era has brought rising inflation and stagnant growth, eroding Chancellor Scholz’s popularity and creating an opening for the CDU to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, the collapse of Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition in November over fiscal disagreements hasleft the government in a precarious position.

Rafael Loss warns that Germany may soon face additional economic pressures from the United States, particularly if former President Donald Trump returns to office. A potential Trump administration could revive trade tensions with Europe, which would hit Germany’s export-reliant economy hard. While Merz and the CDU are expected to take a firmer stance on economic policy, their ability to navigate these challenges while maintaining transatlantic cooperation remains uncertain.

The AfD’s Controversial Past and Its Implications for Germany’s Future

The AfD’s surge in popularity has reignited debates about its legitimacy as a political force. In 2021, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency placed the party under surveillance, labeling it a suspected right-wing extremist group due to ties between some of its members and neo-Nazi organizations. The party unsuccessfully appealed the designation, and several of its state-level branches are currently under investigation for extremist activities.

One of the AfD’s most controversial figures is Björn Höcke, the co-leader of the party in Thuringia, who has been convicted of using Nazi rhetoric and symbols. His prominence within the party has further cemented its reputation as a far-right movement. Despite these controversies, the AfD continues to attract voters who feel neglected by mainstream parties.

A New Era for Germany: Implications for Europe and the World

As Germans go to the polls, the outcome is likely to have far-reaching consequences for both Germany and Europe. If Friedrich Merz and the CDU secure a victory, they will face the daunting task of forming a stable government while navigating the complexities of coalition politics. The AfD’s expected strong showing, even if it remains excluded from power, ensures that its influence on public discourse will continue to grow.

The election also raises questions about Germany’s role in global affairs, particularly regarding its support for Ukraine. While the AfD has called for an end to security assistance to Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions on Russia, Merz and the CDU remain committed to backing Ukraine and countering Russian aggression. This divergence highlights the broader ideological split in German politics and the challenges of maintaining European unity in the face of external threats.

As the results unfold, one thing is clear: Sunday’s election marks the beginning of a new chapter in German politics, one defined by rising polarization, economic uncertainty, and the persistent challenge of far-right populism. The choices German voters make will not only shape their country’s future but also reverberate across Europe and the world.