Ecuador’s presidential election goes to runoff between conservative incumbent, leftist lawyer

Ecuador’s Presidential Runoff: A Pivotal Moment Amidst Rising Crime

Ecuador is gearing up for a high-stakes presidential runoff election in April, pitting conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa against leftist lawyer Luisa González. The race, a rematch of the October 2023 snap election, comes as the country grapples with skyrocketing crime rates, fueled by cocaine trafficking from neighboring Colombia and Peru. With neither candidate securing an outright win in the first-round election, the contest has narrowed to a tight race between Noboa, who garnered 44.31% of the vote, and González, who trailed closely with 43.83%. The remaining 14 candidates lagged far behind, leaving the runoff as a two-person showdown for Ecuador’s presidency.

The Crime Crisis: A Central Issue for Voters

Crime has emerged as the defining issue of the election, with Ecuadorian voters expressing widespread frustration over the surge in homicides, kidnappings, and extortion. The country’s homicide rate, while improved under Noboa’s leadership, remains alarmingly high at 38.76 per 100,000 people, far exceeding the 6.85 per 100,000 recorded in 2019. Other crimes, such as kidnapping and extortion, have skyrocketed, leaving many citizens fearful of leaving their homes. For voters like Marta Barres, who pays $25 monthly to a local gang to avoid harassment, the inability of the current administration to stem the tide of violence has eroded trust in Noboa’s leadership. Barres, like many others, is pinning her hopes on González, believing she can restore safety and stability.

Daniel Noboa: The Incumbent’s Hardline Approach

Daniel Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman and heir to a banana fortune, has built his campaign on a promise to combat crime with an iron fist. His tenure has seen some success, with homicide rates dropping from 46.18 per 100,000 in 2023 to 38.76 last year. However, his "mano dura" (heavy-handed) tactics have drawn criticism both domestically and internationally. These include declaring a state of internal armed conflict in January 2024 to deploy the military against organized crime and authorizing a controversial police raid on Mexico’s embassy to arrest a fugitive former vice president. While some voters applaud his aggressive approach, others view his methods as overreaching and potentially unconstitutional.

Luisa González: The Left’s Hope for Change

Luisa González, a 47-year-old lawyer and protégée of former President Rafael Correa, rose to prominence as a candidate for Correa’s party in the 2023 snap election. Despite her relatively unknown status at the time, González managed to secure a strong showing, losing narrowly to Noboa in the runoff. Her campaign has capitalized on widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent, promising to address both crime and economic stagnation. González’s political credentials, honed during Correa’s presidency, have positioned her as a credible alternative for voters seeking a break from Noboa’s polarizing policies.

A Divided Electorate and the Road Ahead

The first-round election revealed a deeply divided electorate, with neither candidate able to consolidate a decisive lead. Noboa’s base, including upper-class voters like German Rizzo, who praise his tough-on-crime stance, remains loyal, but his inability to win outright suggests he may have reached his voter ceiling. Meanwhile, González’s stronger-than-expected performance has energized her campaign, with analysts attributing her success to widespread disillusionment with Noboa’s administration. As the runoff approaches, both candidates face the challenge of expanding their support bases, with crime and corruption likely to dominate the discourse.

The Outlook for Ecuador’s Future

The runoff election on April 13 will not only determine Ecuador’s next president but also set the course for addressing the country’s entrenched challenges. For many voters, like architecture student Keila Torres, who has witnessed multiple robberies and narrowly escaped a carjacking, the pervasive sense of insecurity has eroded hope for meaningful change. Whether Noboa’s hardline tactics or González’s leftist agenda can restore stability and confidence remains to be seen. As Ecuador stands at a crossroads, the outcome of this election will have far-reaching implications for its future.