The Future of European Defence: A Call for Unity and Investment

Next week, the European Union (EU) Commission is set to unveil its highly anticipated White Paper on the Future of European Defence. This document will outline a comprehensive roadmap for enhancing the bloc’s defence capabilities and readiness, particularly in the face of potential Russian military aggression. The paper is expected to emphasize the need for increased defence spending, better coordination among member states, and a stronger emphasis on European defence initiatives. EU Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius and the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, have stressed that rebuilding Europe’s defence requires significant and sustained investment, as well as joint efforts to address critical capability gaps.

The Need for Increased Defence Spending

The EU has made strides in recent years to boost its defence spending, with member states reaching a record investment of €326 billion in 2024. However, the latest estimates suggest that an additional €500 billion will be needed over the next decade to address critical shortfalls in defence capabilities. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a five-point plan to rearm the continent, including a new €150 billion loan instrument to support joint defence procurement and security initiatives. The Commission is also considering revising the Sustainable Finance Disclosures Regulation (SFDR) to include defence as a sustainable investment goal, recognizing its importance in ensuring long-term security and stability.

Strengthening Europe’s Defence Industry

A key priority for the EU is the creation of a single market for defence, which would simplify rules, reduce fragmentation, and capitalize on economies of scale. By coordinating defence spending and procurement, member states can enhance their bargaining power, lower costs, and promote industrial consolidation. The Commission has identified seven critical capability projects, including military mobility, drones, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, cyber and electronic warfare, and air and missile defence. These projects aim to address gaps in Europe’s defence capabilities and ensure that the bloc remains competitive on the global stage.

Promoting Strategic Autonomy

The EU is also seeking to reduce its dependence on third countries, particularly in the global technology race. Disruptive technologies such as AI, cloud computing, and autonomous systems are increasingly shaping modern warfare, and Europe must invest heavily in these areas to maintain its strategic autonomy. While progress has been made in reducing dependencies on Russia, many member states still rely on technologies from countries like China and the United States. The Commission is planning to introduce a European preference in public procurement rules for strategic defence-related sectors and technologies, likely to be reviewed in 2026.

The Broader Strategic Context

The need for a stronger European defence framework is not only driven by the threat of Russian aggression but also by the broader geopolitical landscape. As the new US administration shifts its focus towards the Indo-Pacific region, Europe can no longer take US security guarantees for granted. The White Paper underscores the importance of Europe stepping up its contribution to NATO and ensuring the alliance remains strong. Additionally, the bloc faces medium-term challenges in the unstable Greater Middle East, further highlighting the urgency of rearming and modernizing its defence capabilities.

A Vision for the Future

The White Paper sets an ambitious vision for Europe’s defence future, aiming to create one of the largest and most competitive domestic defence markets in the world. By simplifying rules, cutting red tape, and promoting joint purchases and production, the EU hopes to foster innovation, enhance defence readiness, and achieve greater industrial scale. While the document is still subject to revisions, its central message is clear: Europe must act decisively to address its defence challenges and ensure it remains a key player in global security. The coming years will be critical in determining whether the EU can translate its ambitions into tangible results, securing a safer and more stable future for its citizens.