Israel faces new Syria challenge as it adjusts to new strategy amid regional power struggle for influence

The Fall of Damascus and Israel’s Military Response

The fall of Damascus on December 8, 2024, marked a significant turning point in the volatile region of the Middle East. The ousting of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by an al-Qaeda-linked insurgency led to an immediate and robust response from Israel. The Israeli Air Force swiftly struck the headquarters of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Damascus, signaling a proactive stance against burgeoning terrorist threats. This action underscored Israel’s commitment to countering any potential dangers emerging from the power vacuum left by Assad’s collapse. With the region plunge into instability, Israel’s strategic maneuvers aim to ensure national security and regional stability.

The Deployment of Israeli Forces in Syria

In response to the escalating tensions, Israel deployed troops to the demilitarized buffer zone along the Syrian border. This strategic move focuses on key areas such as Mount Hermon and the northern Golan Heights, staying within the Bravo Line that demarcates the buffer zone’s limits. According to Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan Conricus, the deployment is a preventive measure against potential ground invasions by jihadi elements towards Israeli communities. The presence of Israeli forces is intended to remain until a stable and sovereign entity resumes control in Syria, capable of curbing terror organizations’ advances.

The Instability in Syria and the Rise of Jihadi Forces

The power shift in Syria has led to the rise of a new Sunni Islamist government under the command of al-Sharaa, leader of the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This transition has intensified concerns about sectarian violence and regional instability. The brutal massacres of minority groups, including Alawites and Christians, in coastal provinces highlight the dire humanitarian situation. These atrocities have validated Israel’s cautious approach, emphasizing the dangers posed by extremist groups and the need for a strong security framework to protect vulnerable populations.

Massacres in Syria and the Humanitarian Crisis

The recent massacres of over 1,000 Alawites and numerous Christians in Tartus and Latakia have revealed the harrowing reality of sectarian violence under the new regime. These events have deepened Israel’s concerns for neighboring Druze communities, prompting a commitment to their protection. Israel’s own Druze population, loyal citizens who actively serve in the military, adds a domestic dimension to this concern. The establishment of checkpoints in Druze areas underscores Israel’s dedication to preventing similar atrocities along its borders.

The Strategic Goals of Israel in Syria

Israel’s strategy in Syria is rooted in preventing the consolidation of power by hostile forces. By conducting over 300 strikes against Syrian military targets and suspected chemical weapons sites, Israel aims to dismantle threats and maintain a fragmented Syrian state. Analysts suggest that Israel favors a decentralized Syria to counter the rise of jihadi forces. This approach is complemented by efforts to deny advanced weaponry to hostile groups, ensuring such arms do not threaten Israeli security or regional stability.

The Role of External Powers in the Conflict

The involvement of external powers adds layers of complexity to the Syrian conflict. While Russia maintains a strategic presence, supporting its interests without directly clashing with Israel, Turkey’s support for HTS introduces another layer of tension. Israel views Turkey’s role with suspicion, especially given Ankara’s historical support for Hamas. The dynamic interplay between these powers shapes the conflict’s trajectory, with Israel advocating for a balance that secures its borders and counters terrorist threats. The delicate geopolitical landscape necessitates a vigilant and strategic approach from Israel to navigate the multifaceted challenges in Syria.