The real reason behind Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and military buildup

A New Wave of US-Mexico Tensions: Understanding Trump’s Recent Actions

Earlier this week, the Trump administration made a surprising announcement: it would impose a 25-percent tariff on imports from Mexico, only to backtrack on parts of the decision shortly afterward. This move, announced on March 6, exempted all products covered under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for a month. Meanwhile, the Department of Defense continued its military buildup along the southern border, deploying an additional 3,000 troops. President Trump has argued that these measures are necessary to address the flow of fentanyl and undocumented immigrants crossing into the US from Mexico. Yet, data shows that fentanyl-related deaths have decreased significantly over the past year, and border crossings have also dropped. So, what is Trump’s real motivation?

Diversion from Domestic Challenges and a New Era of Gunboat Diplomacy

First, Trump appears to be diverting attention from the turmoil caused by his own economic policies. Despite his campaign promises to “fix” the American economy, inflation has risen to 3 percent, consumer confidence remains shaky, petrol prices continue to climb, and thousands of federal employees have been laid off. By focusing on the southern border, Trump is attempting to shift public attention away from his administration’s struggles to deliver on economic promises.

More critically, however, Trump’s actions seem to align with a broader strategy: reviving a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine. This 19th-century policy, originally framed as opposition to European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere, was used to justify US supremacy over Latin America. Today, Trump is employing a similar approach, bullied Mexico and the wider region into compliance with his agenda. The signs of this strategic shift are clear: renaming the Gulf of Mexico to “the Gulf of America,” labeling eight Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, increasing CIA drone missions inside Mexico, deploying a Stryker Brigade combat team to the border, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s ominous declaration that “all options are on the table.”

A Dangerous Historical Precedent: The Monroe Doctrine Redux

The escalating rhetoric and military buildup are ominous signs of a potential US military incursion into Mexico. If such an intervention occurs, it would fit seamlessly into the long history of US aggression toward Mexico and Latin America. The Monroe Doctrine first emerged in 1823 under President James Monroe, who used it to justified US expansionism. It served as a pretext for the Mexican-American War (1846-1848), in which the US seized vast territories from Mexico, including modern-day California, Arizona, New Mexico, and other states. Later, during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920), the US invaded Mexico twice under the guise of stabilizing the region. The doctrine also justified US interventions in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Cuba, and other parts of Central and South America.

Today, as the US faces challenges to its global dominance from China and Russia, particularly in the Americas, the Trump administration appears to be reviving the Monroe Doctrine to reassert US control over the region. The current military buildup and aggressive rhetoric suggest a dangerous return to a policy of intimidation and domination.

Mexico in the Crosshairs: Strategic and Economic Importance

Mexico is particularly vulnerable to this new wave of US aggression due to its strategic location and economic influence. The country shares a 3,000-kilometer border with the US and boasts the second-largest economy in Latin America, with a GDP of $1.79 trillion. While Mexico’s economy is deeply intertwined with that of the US, it has made significant strides in diversifying its trade partners, including China, which has emerged as Mexico’s second-largest trade partner, with a trade volume of $100 billion annually. Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico has also grown dramatically, from $13.6 million in 2008 to $477 million in 2024.

These growing ties between Mexico and China have not gone unnoticed by the Trump administration. In 2023, there were reports that Mexico had expressed interest in joining the BRICS bloc, a grouping of emerging economies dominated by China and Russia. Although Mexico’s then-President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador quickly dismissed the idea, the current left-leaning President, Claudia Sheinbaum, may face increasing pressure from the US to align more closely with Trump’s vision for the region. Earlier this year, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva invited Mexico, along with Uruguay and Colombia, to join the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in July, further signaling Latin America’s growing ties with China.

A New Leader and a New Challenge: Mexico’s Sovereignty Under Threat

President Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s new leader, faces a daunting challenge in navigating the escalating tensions with the US. A pragmatic and fiercely independent leader, Sheinbaum enjoys an impressive 80-percent approval rating and has made it clear that she will defend Mexico’s sovereignty at all costs. Her government has already taken steps to address US concerns, stepping up anti-drug operations and handing over 29 high-level cartel leaders to US authorities. In the last month alone, Mexico announced a record number of fentanyl seizures and arrests, signaling cooperation on key issues.

Yet, Trump’s actions suggest that he is less interested in addressing the root causes of drug trafficking and migration—issues deeply tied to US demand for illicit drugs and cheap labor—than in using the military buildup as a tool of intimidation. The US president is likely seeking to curtail China’s growing influence in Mexico and more broadly in Latin America. By asserting dominance over Mexico, Trump aims to send a message to the rest of the region: compliance with US interests is non-negotiable.

A Return to thePast: The Future of US-Latin America Relations

The implications of Trump’s policies extend far beyond Mexico. By reviving the Monroe Doctrine, the US risks reigniting a cycle of interventionism and instability in Latin America, undoing decades of progress toward sovereignty and self-determination. While President Sheinbaum has so far shown a willingness to cooperate with the US on specific issues, she is unlikely to capitulate to Trump’s broader demands, particularly if they threaten Mexico’s sovereignty.

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Trump’s actions along the southern border may be as much about shoring up support among his base as they are about advancing a new foreign policy agenda. Whatever the motivation, the consequences of his actions could be profound. A US military incursion into Mexico would not only violate international law but also deepen regional tensions, pushing Latin America further into the orbit of powers like China and Russia. For Mexico and the wider region, the coming months will be a critical test of resilience and diplomacy in the face of a resurgent US imperialism.