Texas to Become Biggest State by 2045 As Center of Gravity Shifts South

Texas on Track to Become the Most Populous State by 2045: A Comprehensive Overview

Population Boom: Texas’ Rapid Growth and Its Drivers

Texas is poised to surpass California as the most populous state in the United States by 2045, according to a report by Realtor.com. The Lone Star State’s population is projected to reach 42 million by that year, marking a 35% increase from its current figure of nearly 31 million. This rapid growth is driven by a combination of factors, including internal migration, a robust economy, and a relatively affordable cost of living. Over the past decade, Texas has seen its population swell by nearly four million people, more than any other state. Between July 2023 and July 2024 alone, the state’s population grew by 562,941, giving it an annualized growth rate of 1.8%, the third highest in the country.

The COVID-19 pandemic played a significant role in accelerating this trend, as Texas’ more relaxed health restrictions compared to Democratic-run states like California attracted migrants seeking fewer limitations. Data from Realtor.com shows that the proportion of out-of-state home shoppers in Texas jumped from 20% in 2019 to 33% by April 2023. California, in particular, has been a major source of migration to Texas, with approximately 102,000 people making the move in 2022. This phenomenon has even coined its own nickname: “Texafornia.”

The top reasons for this migration, according to Realtor.com, include a desire for a warmer climate, new job opportunities, the chance to own a home, and a lower cost of living. Additionally, rising crime rates in California, including a 30% increase in homicides between 2019 and 2020, have also contributed to the exodus. In contrast, Texas saw a 4% decline in crime over the same period. Political scientist Thomas Gift of University College London notes that Texas’ combination of a warm climate, thriving economy, and affordable living has made it a magnet for both domestic and international migrants.

Economic Growth: The Texas Boom

The Texas economy has not only weathered the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic but has also emerged stronger. While the state’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 2020, it vastly outperformed the national average of a 3.5% shrinkage. Since then, Texas has experienced a remarkable recovery, with economic growth rates of 5.9% in 2021, 3.9% in 2022, and a stellar 7.4% in 2023. This performance has solidified Texas’ reputation as a thriving economic hub, attracting businesses and talent from across the country.

Several major corporations, including Chevron and Charles Schwab Corp, have relocated their headquarters to Texas from California in recent years. Even tech mogul Elon Musk has joined the trend, announcing in July 2024 that he would move the headquarters of X (formerly Twitter) and SpaceX to Texas. Musk cited California’s progressive policies, particularly a bill related to gender identity in schools, as the final straw. His decision reflects a broader shift of businesses seeking more business-friendly environments, with Texas offering lower taxes, fewer regulations, and a growing labor force.

The housing market in Texas is also booming, with the state accounting for 15% of all homebuilding permits in the U.S. in 2024 despite having only 9% of the country’s population. While the median home price in Texas is $360,000—$40,000 below the national average—affordable housing remains a critical factor in attracting new residents. Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin notes that Texas offers a rare combination of a dynamic job market and relatively affordable housing, making it a standout destination for migrants.

Political Power: Texas’ Growing Influence

As Texas’ population continues to grow, so too does its political influence. Following the 2020 U.S. Census, the state gained two additional seats in the House of Representatives and two more Electoral College votes. If Texas maintains its rapid population growth, it could gain even more political clout in the coming decades. The state’s diversifying population, particularly its growing Hispanic community, is reshaping its political landscape. While Democrats have long hoped that demographic changes could turn Texas into a competitive state, recent elections suggest that Republicans are making strides in courting diverse voter groups.

In the 2024 presidential election, for example, Donald Trump made significant gains among Hispanic and Black voters in Texas, defying earlier assumptions that the state would naturally shift toward the Democratic Party. This trend reflects a broader national shift, with Republican-controlled states like Texas and Florida experiencing population growth while Democratic-dominated states like California, New York, and Illinois see declines. As Texas’ population continues to grow, its role in shaping national politics is likely to expand further.

Cultural Shifts: The Changing Face of Texas

Texas is undergoing profound demographic and cultural changes that are reshaping its identity. U.S. Census data from 2023 revealed that Hispanics now make up the largest demographic group in the state, accounting for 40.2% of the population, surpassing non-Hispanic whites at 39.8%. This shift is bringing a more diverse cultural landscape, with traditions, foods, and practices from Spanish-speaking countries becoming increasingly integrated into Texan life.

At the same time, Texas is rapidly aging. Projections from the Texas Demographic Center indicate that the number of Texans aged 65 and older will increase by 88% between 2023 and 2050, while the population aged 45-64 will grow by 57%. This aging population is likely to have significant implications for the state’s culture, healthcare systems, and social policies. As Texas becomes more diverse and older, its cultural identity will continue to evolve, blending its traditional cowboy image with a modern, cosmopolitan vibe.

National Implications: Texas’ Role in the Union

The projected population growth of Texas has far-reaching implications for the United States as a whole. With its booming economy, growing population, and increasing political influence, Texas is emerging as a powerful force in the nation. However, this growth also raises questions about the state’s relationship with the federal government. Daniel Miller, president of the Texas Nationalist Movement, argues that Texas’ success highlights the need for greater autonomy, claiming that the state sends far more money to Washington than it receives in return.

The Texas Nationalist Movement has gained momentum in recent years, with the Republican Party of Texas announcing in June 2024 that introducing a bill for an independence referendum would be a legislative priority. While the likelihood of Texas seceding from the Union remains low, the growing sentiment reflects a broader frustration with federal policies and a desire for self-governance. As Texas continues to grow and thrive, its role in shaping the future of the United States will undoubtedly be significant.

Conclusion: The Rise of Texas and Its Future Outlook

In summary, Texas is on a trajectory to become the most populous state in the United States by 2045, driven by rapid population growth, economic vitality, and cultural diversity. The state’s booming economy, affordable housing, and warm climate have made it a magnet for migrants from across the country, particularly California. As Texas’ population continues to grow, it is likely to exert even greater influence over national politics, with potential implications for everything from congressional representation to the Electoral College.

However, this growth also presents challenges, including the need to manage its rapidly expanding population, address cultural shifts, and navigate its relationship with the federal government. While the rise of Texan nationalism raises questions about the state’s future within the Union, it is clear that Texas will play an increasingly important role in shaping the social, economic, and political landscape of the United States. As the Lone Star State continues to shine bright, its impact on the nation is set to grow for years to come.